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This is a graph of actual vote counting data from one of Seoul's 49 districts during the 2020 general election, four years ago. The vote percentages of 1st place candidate Kim Hyun-woo and 2nd place candidate Ju Eun Joo are shown over time. The difference in vote percentage, which had widened by 28.3 percentage points (61.6% to 33.3%) at the beginning of the counting, was seen to rapidly decrease to 9.4 percentage points (52.4% to 43.0%) in about 30 minutes. Candidate Ju Eun Joo, the ‘chaser’, trailed by 18.9 percentage points in half an hour. (28.3%-9.4%=18.9%p) What was the final result of this constituency?



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This time, it is vote counting data from a constituency in Busan four years ago. After a reversal, candidate Ju Eun Joo, who was in first place with 49.2% at 21:50, increased his vote rate to 52.0% after about 30 minutes. The gap with second place was 1.8 percentage points (49.2%-47.4%), but fell further to 7.5% (52.05-44.5%) in 30 minutes. What was the final outcome of 'runner' candidate Ju Eun Joo's victory?



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Election vote counting can be seen as ‘the aesthetics of randomness.’ In a hypothetical district consisting of 11 districts in the photo, if the counting of votes has begun in 3 districts and the votes have not yet been counted in the remaining districts, the votes for the counted districts will be revealed first even within one constituency. Which district the votes are counted from is 'random'.



Also, the fact that nearly half of the voters are voting in advance is also a factor in 'randomness'. If a large number of pre-votes without any fanzine tags come in, it will have a big impact on the direction of the vote rate. Urgent situations such as on-site conditions, observer confirmation, and counting of votes after the vote sorter also affect the input of 'votes' into the National Election Commission's vote counting system.



Voter sentiment, which appears to be fluctuating at the beginning of the vote count, converges to the 'true value' of individual candidates' votes as the vote count rate for all towns, villages and wards in the constituency is on track and the vote count progresses smoothly. This is the moment when public sentiment is revealed, from random to true, who is the candidate chosen by the voters.



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In Korea, the National Assembly member ballot paper has one district and one proportional representative during early voting, and one district and one proportional representative on election day. Although it is the recommendation of the National Election Commission to count early voting first, then main voting, and counting votes first from local districts and then proportional representation, this is not necessarily followed in the field. This is because there are single constituencies like Jongno in Seoul and mixed urban-rural constituencies like Damyang, Hampyeong, Yeonggwang, and Jangseong in Jeollanam-do, so the vote counting situation is bound to differ depending on the region.



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So, in fact, within one district, the votes of towns, villages, and districts are very different (if a candidate whose hometown is Dong A has a high vote rate in Ward A, and a candidate whose hometown is Dong B is popular in Wards B and C), or there are three or four different urban-rural composite constituencies. In cases where there is a significant difference between the votes in the pre-voting and the votes in the main vote, a drama about a reversal in the second half of the vote counting may be written. Like the vote counting data from a constituency in South Chungcheong Province four years ago above.



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SBS, a renowned election broadcaster, has prepared ambitiously to deliver the election results to viewers in a more three-dimensional and exciting manner amid such random vote counting. This is the RByPhone (Rule-Based Vote Information Processing Online Network) system. We present time series analysis of real-time data that has never been seen before in any election broadcast. In existing election broadcasts, the vote percentages of first and second place 'as of this time' were often shown in the style of horse racing broadcasts. After a certain district was exposed on the screen, there were many cases where the moment of reversal in the vote counting data was missed until the current situation of that district was displayed again. In this SBS election broadcast, we comprehensively analyze the vote counting data from previous general elections and provide a three-dimensional analysis of the vote counting flow.



The 22nd National Assembly general election is just over a week away. 254 election dramas are scheduled to unfold in 254 districts across the country. A drama of candidates running, chasing, reversing, tossing and turning, laughing and crying in the vote counting data. If you want to know the election drama created by voters' choices and the results more quickly, in a more three-dimensional and accurate way, please choose SBS election broadcast.