It's now or never. The current decade is seen as decisive in saving the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement as human-induced warming is now increasing at an unprecedented rate, according to a major international study published Thursday. "Over the period 2013-2022, warming caused by humanity has increased to an unprecedented level of more than 0.2 ° C per decade," write about fifty renowned researchers in the journal Earth System Science Data, relying on the methods of the IPCC, the climate experts mandated by the UN.

The interest of the study is to provide updated indicators from the 2021 IPCC report, without waiting for the next cycle in several years. The scientists intend to provide open data that is updated every year, to feed into the COP negotiations and political debate. "This is a stark reminder of the reality of the facts, in relation to the urgency of reducing global emissions of CO2 and methane, to help limit global warming and the consequent intensification of risks," French paleoclimatologist Valérie Masson-Delmotte, who participated in the study, told reporters.

Insufficient action

Scientists warn that humanity is facing a "critical" decade when the 1.5°C threshold could be reached or exceeded in the next 10 years. "The latest available evidence shows that global actions are not yet on the scale needed to cause a significant shift in the direction of human influence on global energy imbalances and the resulting warming," the scientists write.

This rate of warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions at record levels, with some 54 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year over 2012-2021, they calculated. They reached 55 billion tonnes in 2021 alone.

"This is mainly related to methane, N2O [nitrous oxide, related to fertilizers] and other greenhouse gases," says Pierre Friedlingstein, while CO2 emissions related to the use of fossil fuels are more or less stable. Warming has also been caused by a reduction in particulate pollutants in the air, which have a cooling effect. This is a paradoxical and short-term effect of less coal use.

  • Global warming
  • Planet
  • Climate change
  • Climate
  • CO2