"Accepting a Russian victory or a confused draw would fatally weaken other neighboring states and send a message to autocrats that the EU is ready to compromise on what it stands for, what it is. It would also signal to our Eastern partners that our commitment to their freedom and independence – a pillar of our foreign policy – is not so unwavering," said former Prime Minister Mario Draghi, speaking at MIT in Boston where he received the Miriam Pozen Prize. For Draghi, accepting a Russian victory "would deal a fatal blow to the EU."

"The war in Ukraine, as never before, has demonstrated the unity of the EU in defending its founding values, going beyond the national priorities of individual countries. This unity will be crucial in the years to come." For Draghi, unity will be decisive especially when it is necessary to "redesign the Union, to accommodate Ukraine, the Balkan countries and the countries of Eastern Europe", and "in organizing a European defense system complementary to NATO". The invasion of Russia is part of President Putin's delusional long-term strategy: recovering the Soviet Union's past influence and the existence of his government is now intimately linked to its success. It would take an internal political change in Moscow for Russia to abandon its goals, but there is no sign that such a change will occur," Draghi added.

According to the former prime minister, "the geopolitical consequences of a prolonged conflict on Europe's eastern border are very significant", so you have to prepare. First: "the EU must be prepared to strengthen its defence capabilities"; Second: "we must be ready to begin a journey with Ukraine leading to its NATO membership"; Third, "we need to prepare for a prolonged period in which the global economy will behave very differently than in the recent past." For example, "I expect governments to have higher deficits forever," because the climate challenge, or the need to strengthen supply chains, "will require substantial public investment that cannot be financed by tax increases alone." This higher government spending will add pressure to inflation, in addition to other possible supply-side shocks." And in the long run, according to Draghi, "interest rates are likely to remain higher than in the past decade."

In this scenario, for the former premier, "central banks must be very attentive to their impact on growth, so as to avoid unnecessary non-performing loans. But the task will fall mainly on governments, which will have to redesign fiscal policies in this new environment of high rates, low potential growth and high public debts.

Executives, Draghi explained, "will have to learn to live in a world where fiscal space is not infinite, as it seemed to be when growth rates far exceeded borrowing costs." This picture, however, could change dramatically if "a wave of powerful innovations, such as artificial intelligence, were to shake the world and increase global growth".