German analyst Andreas Kloth:

Moving the Ukrainian war into Russia is a strategic mistake that the world will pay for

• Ukraine may be encouraged to launch attacks inside Russia using German Leopard tanks. A.B

• Russia has accused Ukraine of orchestrating the drone attack on Moscow. Archival

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The Russian-Ukrainian war over the past few days has witnessed a remarkable development, when Russia revealed that armed elements entered its territory across the Ukrainian border, which means that Ukraine may have begun to transfer the war into Russia. Whether you do it or plan it, the question that German writer and analyst Andreas Kloth asks in an analysis published by Bloomberg News is: Would that be a good thing?

Russia said "Ukrainian terrorists" and "fascists" had attacked Russian territory. Of course, such statements and everything that comes from the Russian government can be ignored. The armed groups that claimed responsibility for the attacks inside Russian territory were said to consist of Russians who defected from President Vladimir Putin's army and are now fighting against him for Ukraine. One such group calls itself the Russian Freedom Corps and the other is called the Russian Volunteer Corps, and includes elements of ultra-nationalists.

Limited information

According to Kluth, there is limited information available about these anti-Putin paramilitaries, especially regarding whether they take orders from Ukraine or operate independently. But these groups appear at least weakly connected to the pro-Ukrainian International Legion, a force of foreign fighters resembling the "international brigades" that participated in Spain's civil war against ultra-nationalist forces, led by Spain's late dictator General Francisco Franco.

Ukraine was quick to deny any involvement in cross-border military attacks in Russia. They may be honest, but the big question remains: Does launching major attacks on Russian territory have a strategic dividend?

Some of the best military minds in history have won defensive wars, in exactly this way. The idea was that threatening the invading state by attacking its bases on its territory would force it to withdraw completely or partially from the original frontline to protect its rear bases.

This scenario occurred during the period 210 to 202 BC, when the Roman commander Shibion the African, or Scipio the African, did so. The Carthaginian commander Hannibal terrorized Rome with his invading forces for 8 years. Scipio, led by a Roman army, responded to the Iberian Peninsula, capturing Hannibal's bases there. Years later Scipio crossed the Mediterranean into North Africa to threaten Cartagena itself. It was only at this moment that Hannibal was forced to leave Italy and returned his troops to his country to defend it, Scipio defeated him and Rome won the war.

In the same way, Ukraine could open new fronts within Russia. In this case, Putin will have to withdraw parts of his invading forces in Ukraine to return them to Russia. This will weaken Russian forces in Ukraine and help Ukrainians regain their territory. Putin will also appear weak at home and risk of being overthrown.

Ukraine is not Rome

But Ukraine is not ancient Rome. Russia is not Cartagena, and Putin is certainly not Hannibal, one of the greatest military personnel in history, despite his eventual defeat. So the strategic position is quite different. Putin has a nuclear arsenal and has repeatedly threatened to use it if he finds himself trapped. If the world, including China, Russia's closest ally, has so far convinced Putin that any nuclear escalation would not be acceptable, Russian doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons if the Russian state itself was in danger. Since Putin considers himself Russia itself, he may decide to use these weapons if he is certain of his personal defeat.

The second difference is that Ukraine currently has the world's best combat readiness military and relies on continued Western support. It defends its skies with U.S. air defense missiles, launches its counterattack on Russian forces using German battle tanks, and may control the air with U.S. F-16 fighter jets.

Biggest Fears

But all this is acceptable on the basis that Ukraine only defends its territory. The biggest fear in the West is the possibility of NATO involvement in the war against Russia, which in this case could turn into World War III. Some Western countries may also stop supporting Ukraine if it adopts offensive tactics. Finally, the so-called "world of the South," that is, the seemingly neutral African and Asian developing countries, may effectively and formally side with Russia.

Kluth believes that the best implementation of Scipio's strategy could be Ukraine's attempt to retake Crimea, which Putin captured in 2014, not by invading it directly, but by cutting off supply routes by retaking the Zaporizhzhya region, then the Sea of Azov, and cutting off the land bridge built by the Russians to connect Luhansk and Crimea. If the Ukrainian offensive succeeds in achieving its objectives, Russian forces in Kherson and Crimea will be exposed in the long run.

Reluctantly

In this case, Putin may see that he has achieved enough and reluctantly enter into peace negotiations, while launching his internal propaganda machine to promote the success of his "special military operation" in Ukraine. On the other hand, if he undergoes military operations inside Russian territory, it will be difficult for him to claim victory and enter into negotiations, and therefore he will find himself forced to redouble his talk about defending Russia against its enemies using all his military tools.

Finally, Kluth argues, Ukraine should not attack Russia's territory, and should not encourage agents such as Russia's anti-Putin paramilitaries to do so. Ukraine would do well to make it clear to the world that it is engaged in a purely defensive war. Kiev's strategy must remain to continue to win over the world, and then to regain as much of its occupied territory as possible.

Ukraine currently has the world's best combat readiness military and relies on continued Western support. It defends its skies with U.S. air defense missiles, launches its counterattack on Russian forces using German battle tanks, and may control the air with U.S. F-16 fighter jets.

The biggest fear in the West is the possibility of NATO involvement in the war against Russia, which in this case could turn into World War III.

• Putin has a nuclear arsenal and has repeatedly threatened to use it if he finds himself trapped. If the world, including China, Russia's closest ally, has so far convinced Putin that any nuclear escalation would not be acceptable, Russian doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons if the Russian state itself was in danger.