Among the Democrats in America, two opinions dominate the image of Ron DeSantis. For some, the governor of Florida, who has now announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination – technically a bit bumpy – on Twitter, is the real danger to democracy. Donald Trump has a lousy character. The right-wing populist is also an enemy of the constitution. But the former president is not an ideologue, but a narcissist; moreover, a chaotic dilettante who does not get things through and who lacks the discipline to pursue his goals consistently.
That is why Trump, who did not allow himself to be contained by traditional Republicans during his term in office, failed in his attempt to dismantle the established system, above all because of himself. DeSantis is different: he is a man of conviction with foam at the mouth. In addition, highly intelligent, professional, well organized. He does what he says. Under a President DeSantis, it will therefore be much more difficult for the Democrats to prevent a cultural revolution.
For the others, DeSantis is also a right-winger and certainly a culture warrior. But he has his temperament under control and proceeds rationally. Socio-politically, he will continue to divide the country. But he will not violate the constitution and attack democratic institutions. Above all, he will accept an electoral defeat. His campaign against the "wokeness" was of a tactical nature. He only chose the topic to woo parts of the Trump base – the people who are tired of the alleged bigotry of the left-liberal mainstream, but do not want to go back to the daily chaos of the Trump era. DeSantis stands for a "Trumpism with brains". Still bad, but not as crazy as the founder of the movement, that's to say.
The latter reading is supported by the fact that DeSantis used to have no problem with homosexuality and the LGBTQ community when he was still a member of the House of Representatives. Certainly, he belonged to the conservative-libertarian wing, especially in terms of fiscal policy. Socio-politically, however, he was not a hardliner. So would DeSantis, if he were to become the Republican nominee, move a bit to the center? In the end, would nothing be eaten as hot as cooked?
Manoeuvring on the subject of the Ukraine war
The fact that he has a lot of tactics involved is shown by his manoeuvring on the subject of the Ukraine war. In order to serve the isolationists in the Trump camp, he denied in the meantime that supporting Kiev is in the vital interests of the United States. Later, the Iraq war veteran, who had always professed the internationalism of the world power, rowed back. A President DeSantis would certainly demand more commitment from the allies, especially in terms of their financial contribution to the military alliance. He certainly wouldn't question NATO in the same way that Trump did.
For Joe Biden, it is currently irrelevant whether DeSantis perfects Trump or just playfully appropriates the role of the new leader of the movement. The incumbent can have no interest in having to compete against the 44-year-old governor. Not only would he be more credible than the soon-to-be-77-year-old Trump, making Biden's signs of aging a campaign issue.
Also, many independent voters and moderate Republicans see him as a doer who has shown in Florida what political leadership means, while the president in Washington did not even convince his Democrats of his agenda and had to make concessions on many legislative projects. This center-right constituency is at stake in the fall of 2024. Biden himself has said that nothing better could happen to him than another election campaign against his predecessor. Against this, he hopes to be able to reassemble the anti-Trump coalition of 2020.
The fact that, according to the polls, it currently looks as if the Republicans are only concerned with the question of Trump or DeSantis reveals the state of the "Grand Old Party". Traditional conservatives are no longer capable of winning a majority. The radicalization of the past 30 years – from Newt Gingrich's conservative revolution to the Tea Party movement to Trump – is not so easy to revise.
In Europe, established parties have sunk during the same period and new, populist ones have taken their place. In America's two-party system, revolution came from within. A return of Trump would leave no stone unturned for the Republicans. If DeSantis prevails, this would be a laboratory test: Can the party be gradually detoxified? Or does the Trump 2.0 .dem also have to give monkeys sugar again and again?