Anyone who thought that not so many Turks living in Hesse would take part in the run-off election that will decide the next Turkish president is mistaken. They had five days to vote in the second round, either with incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan or with his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. As was the case before the first round of voting, long queues formed in front of the Turkish Consulate General in Frankfurt. Observers have no doubt that Erdogan is likely to emerge as the clear winner. Rather, they ask the question: How fair are the elections?
Katharina Iskandar
Editor responsible for the "Rhein-Main" section of the Sonntagszeitung.
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If you ask Rainer Hermann, the F.A.Z.'s long-time correspondent for Turkey and the Arab world, he at least has doubts. It is very likely, says the journalist, who holds a doctorate in Islamic studies, that the election will ultimately be decided in favor of Recep Tayyip Erdogan – possibly also through manipulation. Hermann was a guest at the Frankfurt Press Club on Tuesday evening and, in an interview with F.A.Z. publisher Carsten Knop, painted a rather gloomy picture of political developments in Turkey.
Major influence on the judiciary and the press
From the outset, Hermann said, the CHP-led opposition alliance had a hard time asserting itself with its candidate Kilicdaroglu. Because the "Erdogan machinery" is functioning smoothly. Despite his critics, the incumbent president has managed to assert himself as a "shrewd power politician". Hermann spoke of an "identitarian populism" with which Erdogan had built up his power. For many Turks – including those who live abroad – he embodies social advancement, he "takes people with him emotionally". This is particularly evident in Anatolia, where Erdogan has built up an "elite" of which he is the spokesman. In addition, he had "brought Turkey onto the global stage". Many compatriots gave him credit for this.
However, Hermann points out that a look behind the façade is essential if one wants to penetrate the construct that Erdogan has built. In this way, it becomes clear again and again how great Erdogan's influence is on the Turkish judiciary. It does not act independently, nor is there a free press. One might have imagined, for example, that the earthquake in Turkey would give a boost to the opposition, but Erdogan was able to take advantage of even this event, presumably through deliberate misinformation. There is official talk of 50,000 deaths, but with 250,000 houses destroyed, it must be assumed that the number is many times higher. Nevertheless, the number "50,000" is still being circulated.
Suspicion of electoral manipulation in favour of Erdogan
Consequently, there is a suspicion that the elections in Turkey are neither fair nor free. Thus, the ballot papers would be counted under the eyes of observers of all parties in the locals. However, the lists would then be sent to the electoral authorities, who would type in the results manually. It is increasingly reported that in this process per polling station, of which there are 190,000, about two additional votes are always added to the AKP. In the end, this could amount to a few percentage points that would mean victory for Erdogan, according to Hermann. Should Erdogan be re-elected, the opposition would have to "prepare for hard times".
Hermann wonders: "When will the Turk take to the streets? In France, this would have happened long ago." But even the attempted coup five years ago must be understood in retrospect as a "controlled coup". According to current knowledge, it cannot be ruled out that Erdogan knew what was planned. He just had to wait and see. After that, he knew "who is loyal and who is not."