Erdogan talked about big ideas. Kilicdaroglu about ordinary ideas
Turkish political expert: Ankara's policy on the cusp of a generational shift
Turks are embarking on major changes in their country's political future. A.B
The second round of elections is pivotal for Turkey's future. A.B
The result of the second round puts Kilicdaroglu's future at stake. A.B
Erdogan focuses on Turkey's greatness. A.B
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Turkish researcher and political expert, Ghaleb Dalai, believes that despite the expectations of many polling centers, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling coalition has regained a majority in the Turkish parliament, and it seems that the current president will win the next run-off.
Dalay, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Britain's Chatham House Institute (formally known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs), adds in a report published by the institute that "if so, Erdogan is likely to be politically relaxed as he enters a third decade at the helm of Turkish politics, and he will face little challenge within the broader conservative political spectrum." But this will be his last term – under the country's constitutional boundaries – so his legacy will be a top priority.
"It's hard to imagine a post-Erdogan Turkey, let alone any conservative, Islamist politics after him. But it is likely that in the not-too-distant future the country will prepare for a generational shift in its conservative politics. Beyond talking about fighting terrorism, increasing the focus on identity politics and election economics, such as giving workers a 45 percent pay raise, and early retirement for millions, Erdogan is directly targeting the feelings and ego of the post-empire state and society.
Erdogan emphasizes the idea of Turkey's greatness in international affairs, standing up to world powers — which largely means Western countries — and enjoying autonomy on foreign and security policy.
enjoyment
Erdogan enjoys portraying Turkey's rapidly expanding military industry, which attracts so much international attention, as a clear demonstration of this greatness and independence. Through a series of large technology festivals, Erdogan showcases Turkey's strength, especially in ultra-modern drone technology.
Comprehensive change
By contrast, the opposition promises change in almost all areas, focusing on ending the country's severe economic turmoil and one-man rule. During the campaign, Erdogan's rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was focusing in videos on the challenges facing the country and his vision for facing them.
In one of these passages, he used an onion to emphasize the inflation prevailing in the country and the difficulties families face in accessing basic goods. This onion has come to represent Turkey's economic decline and hyperinflation.
"The march and the onion, as decorations, are also in tune with the images of candidates in public policy, where Erdogan represents charismatic leadership and Kilicdaroglu represents ordinary life. Erdogan spoke of big ideas, and Kilicdaroglu spoke of ordinary ideas. The results of the first round of elections show the victory of big ideas over ordinary to a large extent, that is, the victory of the march over the onion."
Dalay suggests that Kilicdaroglu, 74, will have a hard time maintaining his position as opposition leader if he loses the run-off. But the margin of defeat can determine how much change will take place. If he comes close to winning, he can hold his position for some time and shape the direction of change within the CHP as much as possible. But a severe defeat could force him to leave the party leadership relatively sooner.
Tough choices
"Change will not be limited to Turkey's main opposition party, as Kurdish politics also face difficult choices. Pro-Kurdish parties have long chosen a third path in Turkish politics rather than being part of the ruling or opposition camp. But since 2015 it has changed course and has increasingly become part of the opposition."
Kurdish politics has thus increasingly become an integral part of Turkey's overall political scene, expanding the spectrum it covers. The civilian side of this policy seems to be consolidating its influence at the expense of the military wing.
Turkey, through its rapidly growing military industry and drone technology, has paralyzed the military activity of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). This is likely to further strengthen the authority of the civilian side.
The presence of the PKK continues to cast a shadow over Kurdish politics and could help any government scrutinize national politics with relative ease, as fighting terrorism was a key theme in Erdogan's campaign during the election.
The Future of Kurdish Politics
The future of Kurdish politics now lies in the main cities of western Turkey, such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, and Mersin, and not in the main support base for the Kurdish majority in the eastern or southern part of Turkey.
Regardless of the run-off outcome, this election will prove to be a major milestone in generational structural changes for Turkey's political future. The country has already entered a new period of formation, so the stakes are high and the choices are difficult."
Erdogan emphasizes the idea of Turkey's greatness in international affairs, standing up to world powers — which largely means Western countries — and enjoying autonomy on foreign and security policy.
Erdogan is likely to be politically relaxed as he enters a third decade at the helm of Turkish politics, and will face little challenge within the broader conservative political spectrum.
Regardless of the run-off outcome, this election will prove to be a major milestone in generational structural changes for Turkey's political future.