After months of evaluation and indecision, the German government finally decided to allow the sale of part of the Port of Hamburg to the Chinese company Cosco. This is a significant step that concerns the most important maritime infrastructure of the country and one of the most important at European level. We talked about it with Giuseppe Sabella, director of Oikonova.

What assessment should be given of this operation by the Germans?
Meanwhile, just to give the size of this operation, the share sold to the Chinese concerns 24.9% of one of the four terminals, specifically the T3 (Tollerort). In addition, in the 2021 agreement it was planned to sell 35%, now the share decreases. Although there is care to prevent China from gaining too much power over Germany's main airport, it is certainly not an operation to be welcomed: it is instead a story that highlights, once again, Europe's weaknesses. And that I think is bound to generate some problems.

In what sense does this agreement demonstrate Europe's weaknesses?
European economic policy - like those of the United States and China - has long been geared towards consolidating the internal market. The future of the European, American and Asian macro-regional economies depends on domestic demand. This sale goes against the trend of the most recent economic planning, at least from the Green Deal (2019) onwards. Moreover, the decision taken by the Scholz government comes after months and months of discussion. And, even today, not all ministers have declared themselves in favour. It should be well understood why this operation is taking place. Moreover, it is not the only significant event of the last two months. Something is happening.

What are you alluding to?
After Chinese President Xi Jinping was in Moscow (20-22 March), Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Beijing (10-12 April). Following President French, there were 50 industrialists. It is clear that it was not just a peace mission. After that, on April 27, Xi Jinping phoned Zelensky and, around those hours, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said "we are not trying to decouple our economy from that of China, a total separation of our economies would be disastrous for both countries and would be destabilizing for the rest of the world". Now, all this suggests that China is presenting itself as the great mediator of the Ukrainian crisis, as indeed it did in the dispute between Iran and Saudi Arabia. To the US, all this seems to be fine. Moreover, just in the last 10 days US and China relations have had an important recovery. Xi Jinping, we know, is able to stop Putin. But China, of course, wants quid pro quo.

And what does China want?
China basically has a big goal: it wants to restart world trade. We keep in mind that in the last 10 years trade has slowed down considerably – also due to the inevitably exhausted thrust of the process of off shoring, or delocalization of production – and that since 2017 they have become very complicated also due to the effect of American duties as well as for the back reshoring ofof productions. In summary: the process of economic and market interdependence has come to a halt. Consider that China has built its fortune on the global market and still depends a lot on exports. Obviously, she is not happy with this situation. The Silk Road is an attempt to create a new globalization and impose its hegemony in the world. With this in mind, the Port of Hamburg operation is included.

We shall see how the situation you describe develops. In any case, I ask you: Germany and France seem to be at the center of the negotiations for a new world order, where is Italy?
In line with the objectives shared in Brussels, Italy is considering exiting the Silk Road. Actually seeing how things are going, I think Italy-China trade relations could continue. However, we should think of drawing more convenience, given that with the accession to the Belt and Road Initiative (2019) there have been no great advantages for our country. In 2019, Italian exports to Beijing were worth less than 15 billion, in 2020 it fell to 12 and then reached 17 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, from China we imported 32 billion in 2019, almost 60 billion in 2022. If China is Italy's second largest supplier of goods, Italy is China's 22nd largest trading partner. It is, as can be seen, a completely unbalanced commercial relationship. In any case, it is clear that the US and the EU are preparing to mediate with China. But it is a mediation that it is Europe in particular that pays, both in the immediate and in the medium to long term.

When you talk about the price to pay, what do you mean concretely?
These agreements that are maturing with Beijing are a prelude to a growing presence of the Chinese product in Europe. This is not great news, at a time when European industry is being asked to make a major commitment in terms of innovation. It is essential that the market rewards this effort, the Chinese product – we know – does not have the same quality as ours and costs less. We must be very careful because the public and private resources put into this innovation process are enormous. It is crucial at this stage that the European market – understood as consumption – rewards European industry, not Chinese industry. If this does not happen, we will pay a very high price. We will see what happens in the car market: electric vehicles produced in China will cost much less than those we will produce here. China, moreover, works to prevent our objectives. Macron says that from Beijing we import a lot of raw materials for our Green Transition and that, therefore, we cannot break our relations with China. True, but let us not find ourselves in situations of subjection similar to those recently with Russia for gas.

What repercussions could this scenario you outlined have on the Ukrainian crisis?
None of us has a crystal ball and something can always happen that blows up the negotiating table. I have no doubt that diplomacy has always worked hard. What seems quite evident today is that a great political agreement is maturing on peace in Ukraine that Putin – and even Zelensky – can hardly ignore.