• Since May 10, the Pyrénées-Orientales have been in a situation of water crisis.
  • For 20 Minutes, hydroclimatologist Yves Tramblay, one of the authors of the chapter "Mediterranean Region" of the sixth report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), discusses this situation and the issues.
  • "I'm worried because I find the contrast between the content of our studies and the decision-making behind it stark," he says.

Yves Tramblay is a hydroclimatologist at the IRD (Institut de recherche pour le développement) in Montpellier. He is one of the authors of the "Mediterranean Region" chapter of the sixth IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, the second part of which was published in February 2022. A report in which the vulnerability of the Mediterranean area is clearly apparent, between an increase in atmospheric temperature (1.5 °C compared to 1850), that of the sea (+0.29 to +0.44 °C per decade) and acidification of marine waters. He decrypts, for 20 Minutes, the intense episode of drought that the department of Pyrénées-Orientales, placed in crisis since May 10.

Does the drought that the Pyrénées-Orientales have been experiencing for more than a year presage major changes for the south of the France?

This is a very good example of an abnormal situation, which will be more and more frequent and will potentially, in a few decades, be the new climate. This is clearly the conclusion of all IPCC studies and scenarios: major drought episodes in the Mediterranean will be one of the main consequences of climate change. Hence the need to anticipate it and not be confronted with very violent choices in ten or twenty years.

Why is this department particularly affected?

The rainfall deficit is very important. In January, they did not exceed a hundred millimeters of rain, which is very little at a time when groundwater generally recharge. But the situation is not unique to this department. We are on the same pattern as Spain with a drought that has settled in Catalonia for several years. And there, it's a disaster. In the Hérault, soil moisture is far from what it should be at this time of year.

What will be the consequences of this drought?

The water stock is not infinite. People share the water available for different uses, including agriculture and tourism, with a problem common to the entire Mediterranean rim: there is a huge influx of population in summer, when it does not rain. The water stocks available in the summer are entirely related to what rained the previous winter. Mechanically, we are moving towards greater conflicts of use. And so the question will arise: who will we turn off the tap?

Rising sea levels, which will affect 37% of the Mediterranean coast, increased desertification, fires that will burn up to a quarter of Natura 2000 sites, episodes of heavy rains and floods: the IPCC report is worrying...

With this episode of drought that settles in the long term, we realize that it is not in a hundred years that it will happen ... Maybe next year we will have an extremely rainy winter. If that happens, people will unfortunately lose their memories. But if we count the dry winters over ten or twenty years, we will realize that drought is indeed setting in. I am concerned because I find the contrast between the content of our studies and the decision-making behind it stark. I think there is a lack of communication and popularization on the part of scientists.

The IPCC report looks at the need to adapt to these changes. What do you recommend?

There are different tracks. Especially those that have the benefit of saving water in general, for example by facilitating the reuse of wastewater. But also an extremely important aspect to explore, which concerns the reduction of water for agricultural uses, one of the first items of consumption. By optimizing irrigation, using types of cultivation, for example vine varieties that need much less water than others. But it takes behind a will to change things.

Do you feel an awareness?

I do not have the impression that there is a real consideration of what is going to happen. I fear that fairly quickly, and we are quite a few scientists to share this observation, that we have waited so long for there to be no more technical solutions. Plant species are migrating to other regions and this is just the beginning. Projections indicate, for example, that making wine in the Mediterranean will become complicated in a few years. You have to be prepared. For example, we manage to grow wine in very arid places, but with ultra-drought-resilient grape varieties. We have extremely important choices to make. If we don't make these choices, we're going into a wall.

What are the margins of maneuver?

It is not enough to put in place drought orders, we must consider longer-term planning, otherwise we will have to manage crises each time, which will become more and more serious. I don't feel like radical changes are happening. For that, you need incentives on two levels. At the national level with a legislative framework. And local, with consultations, to adapt what can be done according to the context. There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Farmers are in any case very well placed to know their terroir well, what can be done or not done there. But there must be a direct confrontation between purely economic imperatives and this natural aspect.

Is this the example or rather the counter-example of mega basins?

That is a pretty glaring example. Because there is less water, we will irrigate more. It may make sense from an economic point of view, but it is absurd from a climate point of view. It is short-term management. The main pitfall is to make it clear that short-term thinking will not stand up behind climate change, which is already clearly visible in the Mediterranean. I am a scientist and a public servant. Scientists, many in my case, have nothing to sell, our discourse is disinterested. I have the feeling that the public realizes that there is a concern. On the other hand, I also often hear a climate sceptic discourse or denial vis-à-vis certain lobbies. As soon as the observation collides with economic interests, it is denigrated.


  • Drought
  • Planet
  • Water
  • Perpignan
  • Occitania
  • Languedoc-Roussillon
  • Pyrénées-Orientales