In Thailand, the opposition is smiling. Thais inflicted a severe defeat on the military, which has been in power for almost a decade, in Sunday's parliamentary elections that propelled the two pro-democracy opposition parties into the lead.

The Move Forward party, whose progressive discourse echoes the massive protests of 2020 that called for a major overhaul of the monarchy, is well on its way to becoming the leading force in the next parliament. However, from the reform of the harsh lese majeste law to the end of compulsory conscription, his radical agenda may create new tensions with the military-royalist elite.

Rejection of the outgoing Prime Minister

Millions of voters went to the polls in an election marked by the rejection of outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who came to power after a coup in 2014 and then legitimized in 2019 by controversial elections. Based on the counting of ballots in 97% of polling stations, Move Forward comes first, with more than 13.5 million votes (out of 52 million voters).

Behind, the opposition Pheu Thai party of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, won 10.3 million votes. Former General Prayut Chan-O-Cha received 4.5 million votes, under the banner of the United Thai Nation Party (UTN), in third place.

The final official results, however, are not expected for several weeks. On the night of Sunday to Monday, the electoral commission gives Move Forward (113 MPs) a slight lead over Pheu Thai (112), out of the 400 constituencies at stake. The other 100 deputies are elected by proportional representation.

Oppositions ready to "work together"

At first glance, Move Forward scored a resounding victory. The party associated with the color orange claims to be the standard-bearer of the youth. Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, estimated that his movement would win 160 seats, a surprise score.

A government agreement with Pheu Thai "is on the table", confirmed the 42-year-old candidate. "We can work together," Pheu Thai star candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, replied. "But we are waiting for the official results," continued the one who called for an "electoral tidal wave" to come to power, nine years after the putsch that overthrew Yingluck Shinawatra, her aunt.

The electoral system concocted by the military forced Move Forward and Pheu Thai to win a large majority in parliament or form a coalition. Indeed, the opposition needs 376 seats out of the 500 in the Assembly to counterbalance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army. The pro-army camp of 126 MPs is enough to secure a majority in the vote of the Prime Minister, chosen by both chambers.

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