The fact that Erdogan has to go to the run-off election will be a humiliation after twenty years in power. Nevertheless, the prospects for a change of government in Ankara have not increased with Sunday's election. The incumbent president left his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, well behind. Voters of the far-right third-placed candidate are likely to find Erdogan more easily in the next round of voting.

The result of the parliamentary elections, in which the AKP's electoral alliance secured a majority, also gives Erdogan an advantage among voters who do not want a power struggle between the institutions.

Polls put Kilicdaroglu ahead

This result has surprised some in the West, who may have relied too much on polls that put the common opposition candidate ahead. But the very fact that the CHP, once founded by Atatürk, saw no chance of prevailing against the incumbent on its own shows how great the challenge was and will be again when it enters the second round.

Erdogan has recently inflicted some damage on the country, for example through his economic policies or through the politicization of the judiciary; the government also did not cut a good figure in dealing with the recent earthquake. But this is apparently not enough to make many voters forget what Erdogan stands for: for an economic modernization of Turkey and a greater (public) role for Islam. His often provocative resistance to the West, which annoys NATO partners in particular, distinguishes him in the eyes of nationally conscious Turks.

It will now be difficult for Kilicdaroglu. Running against an experienced tribune of the people is no easier in a run-off election, especially if he controls large parts of the media. However, the West should refrain from making election recommendations, especially in Berlin. Germany must be able to work with anyone who is elected on 28 May.