Alexandr Lukashenko is apparently ill. On the one hand, this is supported by the fact that, contrary to his customs, the Belarusian ruler has not appeared in public since last Tuesday. In addition, statements by a Russian member of parliament indicate this.

Friedrich Schmidt

Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS.

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"There is nothing supernatural there, this is not Covid," said Konstantin Zatulin of the Duma Committee on the Affairs of the Commonwealth of Independent States in response to speculation about Lukashenko's state of health that has been circulating for days. "Man is simply sick. Although the person is ill, he considered it his duty to come to Moscow," the deputy continued. Lukashenko's penultimate appearance for the time being was on May 9 at the military parade marking "Victory Day" in World War II on Moscow's Red Square.

Pictures from the event show that Lukashenko was wearing a bandage around his right hand. The approximately 300 meters from the tribune in front of Lenin's Mausoleum, from which Lukashenko followed the parade together with the host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and six other heads of state and government of the post-Soviet space, to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in the Alexander Garden, he covered in an electric scooter, which he had apparently spontaneously asked Putin for.

Lukashenko did not visit a subsequent breakfast with Putin and the rest of the guests. Later, he took part in the commemoration of "Victory Day" in Minsk, but without giving the traditional speech. This was the last time Lukashenko appeared in public for the time being.

In power since 1994

MP Zatulin suspected that the Minsk ruler "probably needs some rest, that's all." But it's not that simple: in systems of power tailored entirely to one person, such as the Belarusian – and also the Russian – the state of health of the ruler is a state affair surrounded by taboo and mystery. Where all opponents have been eliminated, it is not constitutions or elections that limit the rule of the autocrat, but only human transience. Accordingly, Lukashenko, like Putin, is flaunting physical fitness; it is not only the most important condition of their own power, but is even intended to guarantee the statehood of their respective countries, of which the rulers act as guarantors.

The 68-year-old Lukashenko has been in power since 1994; in 2014 he underwent knee surgery, and in 2020 Lukashenko, who always played down the pandemic, said that he himself had survived a corona infection without symptoms. In the same year, his spokeswoman said that rumours of Lukashenko's hospitalisation would not be commented on "traditionally".

What Lukashenko is suffering from now is therefore unclear, official information is missing. The exiled opponent of the regime Pavel Latushka, a former diplomat and minister, said, citing his own sources, that Lukashenko suffers from myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. This could be indicated by the weakness shown in Moscow. On Sunday, the "Day of the State Flag, Coat of Arms and Anthem" was celebrated in Belarus, by order of Lukashenko himself. But Lukashenko did not appear, his prime minister, Roman Golovchenko, read out a greeting from the ruler. According to media reports, Lukashenko's convoy was spotted at a medical facility near Minsk on Saturday evening; the ruler is said to have spent two hours there.

At the same time, there are still great concerns about the health of Viktor Babariko, Lukashenko's main opponent in the 2020 presidential elections. At the end of April, Babariko's comrades-in-arms reported that the political prisoner was in a hospital in the northern Belarusian city of Navapolatsk. For two months now, there have been no written communications from Babariko, who has recently been held in solitary confinement. Doctors had removed fluid from his lungs, each transport was life-threatening, it said, citing unspecified doctors. But there is no reliable information about Babariko's condition, and even the information about the whereabouts of the politician contradicts each other.