It is not often that an autocratic ruler leaves office through elections. But that is exactly what could happen this Sunday in Turkey. An opposition victory could steer the country in a completely new direction and make Turkey a role model for opposition figures in other autocratic countries.
How likely is an opposition victory?
Friederike Böge
Political correspondent for Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan based in Ankara.
- Follow I follow
Most current polls put opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead. The question is whether his lead will be enough to avoid a run-off. The figures of the polling institute Konda, which came closest to the result in the 2018 presidential election, are considered particularly meaningful. The latest Konda poll puts Kilicdaroglu at 49.3 percent and Erdogan at 43.7 percent. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 4.8 percent of the vote. However, the survey took place before the withdrawal of the former fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince. His voting potential of 2.2 percent could benefit Kilicdaroglu and lift him above the 50 percent mark.
If, on the other hand, there is a run-off election, many opposition supporters fear that Erdogan could use the two weeks between the first and second rounds to create an unstable situation. The parliamentary elections of 2015 serve as a cautionary tale. After the AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament in June, Erdogan called new elections for November. The election campaign was overshadowed by a bomb attack that left more than 100 dead. The desire for stability among the population helped the AKP to victory. The opposition may also find it difficult to mobilise the same number of voters in a second round. Manipulation of the election results cannot be ruled out either.
Would Erdogan accept defeat?
In a television interview on Friday evening, Erdogan replied to this question as follows: "Such a question can only be asked of a terrorist organization. We came to power by democratic means. If my nation decides otherwise, we will do what democracy asks us to do." This was well received in opposition circles. On Saturday, however, Erdogan once again used language in a campaign speech that seems to be designed to undermine the legitimacy of the elections. He accused Kilicdaroglu of working with American President Joe Biden to overthrow him. Many observers believe that the president could doubt the result, especially if it is very close. A warning example of this is the mayoral election in Istanbul in 2019, in which Erdogan pushed through a new election despite a narrow victory for the opposition. But that didn't help him: the opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu won the new election even higher.
Turkey experts point out that a stolen election like the one in Belarus in 2020 is not to be expected in Turkey. Elections are too firmly anchored in Turkish politics as a basis for legitimacy. Voter turnout in the previous presidential elections was 86 percent. True, there are fears that in the event of Erdogan's defeat, there will be violence on the part of his supporters. However, Erdogan could hardly use this to stay in office.
How great is the risk of electoral fraud?
That depends on whether the opposition succeeds in continuously monitoring the ballot boxes on election day to prevent them from being replaced by prepared ballot boxes. The opposition alliance says it has mobilized more than half a million volunteer election observers. They are faced with the task of observing around 191,000 polling stations. Opposition circles fear that there could be gaps in monitoring, especially in the earthquake areas and in the Kurdish-majority areas in the south-east of the country. In the earthquake zones, this is because overnight accommodation for observers is limited. In the southeast, because volunteers could be intimidated by violence. In principle, the opposition is also represented in the electoral councils, which are responsible for organizing voting and counting. However, in the southeast, the most important opposition party, the HDP, is not represented in the electoral councils. Their candidates are running under the umbrella of the Green Left Party because a ban procedure is underway against the HDP.