There is no end in sight to the showdown between the streets, the army, the government and the judiciary in Pakistan. On Friday, Imran Khan appeared again before the High Court in Islamabad, where the judges guaranteed him two weeks of freedom on probation. But his party, the PTI, called on its supporters to stay on the streets until Khan was in a safe place. Despite the court orders, no one could be sure that his opponents would not be able to use another of the many open corruption cases to put the former prime minister and opposition leader back behind bars.

Alexander Haneke

Editor in politics.

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The volts of the past few days with open street battles and more than 2000 arrests nationwide have once again revealed the peculiar balance of power that characterizes the nuclear power Pakistan with its approximately 220 million inhabitants. Since the founding of the state in 1947, the army has been regarded as the real power in the state, and it has staged three coups so far. Even in the intermediate phases, the generals always held the most important levers in their hands, dominated the security apparatus and pulled numerous strings in domestic and foreign policy with their notorious intelligence service ISI.

Two families share power

On the other hand, there have always been the two political dynasties of the Bhutto and Sharif families, which controlled the major parties PPP and PML-N and were sometimes overthrown by the military, sometimes with its help ousted the other family or led masses away in order to force the coup governments to retreat. And last but not least, the Supreme Court, which often remains in the background, but asserts itself at crucial moments. A system that, thanks to the easily mobilized masses on the streets, has always been so unstable that neither side has ever succeeded in establishing a permanent autocracy.

However, Khan has brought a new facet to this power structure. According to popular belief, the long-time captain of the national cricket team, who became a legend by winning the World Cup in 1992, later filled the gossip columns as a coveted playboy and finally, after finding his way to Islam, went into politics with his Pakistan Movement for Justice (PTI), was himself on the side of the generals for a long time. It is said that the army brought Khan, who was considered a political lightweight at the time, to power in the 2018 election because the PML-N of Nawaz Sharif, the older brother of current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, had become too dangerous for them. This was the first time since the founding of the state that a civilian government was not led by one of the major parties, the PPP or PML-N.

But Khan's government proved incapable of leading the economically struggling country through the Corona crisis. He gambled away all credit from international partners and lenders alike and allowed the security apparatus to take ever more open action against his opponents. In the end, the generals apparently dropped him, perhaps also because the discontent among the population had also been directed against the army by the open repression during Khan's reign. In April last year, Khan was ousted by a vote of no confidence in parliament after the old opponents PPP and PML-N joined forces with several small parties from Khan's coalition. Many believe that this volte was only possible in agreement with the military leadership.

Gifted populist

At the time, Khan seemed politically at the end of his rope and railed against a foreign conspiracy led by the US that had brought him down. But the more it became apparent that the new government under Shehbaz Sharif did not bring any economic improvement, the more support Khan gained as the new opposition leader. He organized numerous mass events and a march on Islamabad. In this way, the gifted populist managed to sell himself as the only opponent of the power cartel of the army and the old parties. After being shot at a rally in November, he claimed that a senior military intelligence commander was behind the assassination. A thesis that many believe in Pakistan, where army circles are also suspected of being behind the bomb attack on former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

After all, it was this accusation that may have led to the national crisis of the past few days. Shortly before Khan was arrested on Tuesday by an army unit of the Rangers, the military leadership had called on him to refrain from his accusations. Khan's supporters see the corruption cases against him as nothing more than an attempt to prevent his return to power in the upcoming elections. In Pakistan, where bribery is endemic, corruption proceedings are generally regarded as a means of eliminating political opponents. But on Thursday, when the Supreme Court declared Khan's arrest by the Rangers illegal, it at least made it clear that he is keeping a close eye on the investigation – and that his authority is not questioned by the army.