• After two decades in power, Turkish President Erdogan faces a presidential election that promises to be indecisive.
  • Facing the AKP leader, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has assembled a broad coalition and is ahead of the outgoing president in the polls, three days before the election.
  • Will Erdogan's hegemony stop? Elements of answer with Alican Tayla, teacher at Inalco and specialist of Turkey.

Whether you are a revolutionary, a construction worker (one does not prevent the other) or a simple citizen, unbolting a statue is not an easy task. Especially when she's still alive. After two decades in power, first as prime minister before assuming the post of president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political future is uncertain.

The first round of the Turkish presidential election is held on Sunday, and, at this stage, it would take a lot of courage or recklessness to risk a prognosis. Facing the AKP leader stands Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, at the head of a coalition of six parties. The momentum driven by the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP) also pushed Muharrem Ince, another candidate (credited with 2 to 4% of intentions, Erdogan's runner-up in 2018), to leave the race on Thursday. A withdrawal that could favor Erdogan's main opponent, according to a Turkish polling institute.

Another poll, published by the renowned Konda Institute, credits Kiliçdaroglu with 49.3% of the vote in the first round, against 43.7% for Erdogan. With three days to go, can Erdogan really be defeated? Alican Tayla, a teacher at Inalco and an expert on Turkey, believes that change can happen, but calls for the trend to be put into perspective. "Much of Erdogan's electoral successes have been built on a rather favorable economic record. However, the situation is catastrophic in this regard (Editor's note: 85% inflation last fall) at the moment in the country. But, despite this assessment, it does not collapse in the polls, "analyzes our expert, also a doctoral student at the French Institute of Geopolitics (Paris 8).

An opposition that wants to "restore democratic life"

And if the former mayor of Istanbul has not totally tumbled, the machine seems to have seized since the last presidential election, in 2018, where he needed only one round to settle the case. "There is a kind of pragmatism that makes a whole floating electorate preparing to no longer vote for Erdogan because of the deterioration of purchasing power," said Dorothée Schmid, researcher at IFRI, interviewed by France Culture.



On the other hand, the opposition has gained ground thanks to a "united and fairly effective campaign". Strict separation of powers, an "accountable executive" for its decisions, an abandonment of the presidential system... In its 240-page programme, the alliance led by Kemal Kiliçdaroglu announces that it wants to restore democracy in the country. "Within the coalition, there is an extreme right-wing party, another centre-left, a conservative-Islamic party... On paper, it may seem far-fetched, but there are just about every serious party in the country, out of power, says Alican Tayla. The goal of the coalition is to restore democratic life, and to install a transition, because it will not be able to govern indefinitely as it is."

What transition in case of Erdogan's defeat?

In addition to the result, it is the way in which it is obtained that also concerns public opinion. Before Sunday, nearly 3.4 million Turks voted from abroad, and incidents multiplied across Europe: complaints filed by Erdogan's opponents in Lyon, clashes in Marseille, "huge fight" in a polling station in Amsterdam or attempts to intimidate AKP activists in Germany. According to polls, "nearly one voter in two thinks that electoral security is not ensured," says our expert, before continuing. "If it plays out very little, the worries about a transition difficulty can become more concrete. What will Erdogan's attitude be? When you've never lost, you don't know if you're a good loser or a bad loser. »

In 1999, an earthquake killed thousands of Turks, creating a sense of revolt, fuelled by a precarious economic situation. These conditions had allowed Erdogan to rise to the top of the state.

More than two decades later, another earthquake struck the country, killing more than 50,000 people. "The enormous damage has swept away the image of prosperity that Erdogan and his party were imposing," Osman Balaban, a professor of urban planning at Ankara Technical University, told AFP. Criticised for his mismanagement of the crisis, the AKP leader, who had based part of his success on major real estate projects, hopes that the sequence will not be fatal.

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