Japan-South Korea talks "encouraging for the United States"... What about Korea?

Following President Yoon Seok-yeol's visit to Japan in March, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida visited Korea in 3 days, leading to assessments that shuttle diplomacy between South Korea and Japan has been restored. Of course, domestically, criticism is fierce. The New York Times also reported that Prime Minister Kishida's remarks that he was "heartbroken" about the issue "fell short of the clear and direct apology demanded by many South Koreans, including opposition leaders." He also pointed out that past issues can become a double whammy in bilateral relations at any time.

The situation is still very controversial, but in any case, the conflict between South Korea and Japan, which arose in 52 over the issue of past history, seems to have been sealed at least formally. And the United States is responding most quickly to these changes. President Biden personally expressed his gratitude during the U.S.-ROK summit last month, saying, "I appreciate President Yoon Seok-yeol's bold and principled diplomatic determination with Japan." The New York Times called it "an encouraging signal for the United States, which has urged both Korea and Japan to put past grievances behind them and cooperate further."

U.S. speeds up U.S.-South Korea cooperation... MD system enhancement goal?

Enlarge the image

On the day of the Japan-South Korea summit, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller tweeted that the United States welcomed the summit even though it was a holiday. "As an ally of Japan and the Republic of Korea, the United States welcomes the news of the Japan-South Korea summit," Miller said, "and the United States will continue to work with our allies and partners to advance a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific region." It may sound like an original statement, but considering that the United States has been encouraging reconciliation between South Korea and Japan so much, it should be seen as more than just a welcome.

In response, the Wall Street Journal said, "The closer Tokyo and Seoul become, the more integrated and real-time missile defense with the United States will be, which will strengthen the alliance's ability to monitor military movements between North Korea and China." The idea is that improving relations between South Korea and Japan will help both the United States and Japan by further upgrading the US-led missile defense system, but in fact, in the case of containing China, I think it would be a more honest expression to view it as a concern of the United States than to our country.

According to the Wall Street Journal's analysis, the United States is likely to strengthen its missile defense system through cooperation between the United States and Japan. Currently, the concept of missile defense (MD) in the United States refers to an "expanded NMD" that combines the National Missile Defense system, which can defend the entire United States, and the Theater Missile Defense system, which is used to defend U.S. forces and allies deployed around the world. Established by the George W. Bush administration in 2002, this concept aims to defend the U.S. homeland against ICBM attacks and protect U.S. forces and allies from short- and intermediate-range missile threats at the regional level. From our point of view, which is to respond to the North Korean nuclear threat based on the ROK-U.S. alliance, it is a very attractive concept.

Fears of Chinese backlash over U.S.-South Korea cooperation... 2nd Han Ling?

Enlarge the image

However, China also fiercely opposed the U.S. High Altitude Area Missile Defense (THAAD) system deployed in July 2016 to defend North Korea's nuclear and missile defenses. At the time, China retaliated with a "Korean rule" that effectively banned South Korean content in the country, and although it has since been partially relaxed, the fallout has continued to this day. Concerned about this, Korea announced that it would not participate in the US MD system even after the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol government. However, in a situation where we are relying on the expansion deterrence of the United States, it is doubtful that our country will be able to pull its foot down unconditionally if the United States demands it.

And even if it's not necessarily a missile defense system, U.S.-South Korea cooperation is in itself an inconvenience for China. It is also in this context that China is also engaged in Taiwan-related statements made at the ROK-US summit. It is obvious that North Korea will react harshly as cooperation between the United States and Japan intensifies. In terms of strengthening deterrence, this is fine, but it is not an embarrassment for us who cannot give up on exchanges with China and dialogue with North Korea.

The G7 Summit will be held in Japan from the 19th. The ROK-Japan summit will also be held on this occasion, and as the suspension is completed due to the mutual visit between South Korea and Japan, the United States is expected to speed up the strengthening of cooperation between the three countries in the Indo-Pacific region. The government faces the challenge of strengthening cooperation with "our ally the United States" and "Japan near and far," while not provoking China and North Korea.

(Photo = Yonhap News)