Henry Park stressed that the political system is deeply divided and polarized

US expert: Days of turmoil await Turkey if Erdogan is defeated after 20 years of rule

• Erdogan addresses a rally of supporters in Istanbul. Reuters

• The opposition coalition led by the Republican People's Party (CHP) and its president Kemal Kilicdaroglu represents a complete transformation of the system. Reuters

• Erdogan has built on a solid popular base over two decades that has boosted his shares with a broad cross-section of Turks. A.B

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to form a popular base on which he relied over nearly two decades in power by pushing policies that boosted his shares with a large segment of Turks, but will Erdogan withstand the upcoming elections amid the high inflation levels, the decline in the value of the Turkish lira and the challenges caused by the effects of the recent devastating earthquake?

Dr. Henry Park, a professor of international relations at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania, an assistant senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says in a report published by the National Interest magazine that Turks are scheduled to go to the polls on May 14, in one of the most important elections of the year. Turkey is an important country, and competing alliances and leaders promise outstanding solutions and approaches to meet the challenges ahead.

Park talks about a possible defeat for the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, the truth is that turbulent days await Turkey if Erdogan is defeated after 20 years in power. This is because Turkey's political system is deeply divided, polarized, and needs a well-defined roadmap for political transition.

Moreover, the structural political changes pledged by the opposition coalition led by the CHP and its president, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, represent a complete transformation of the system. The transition will be difficult because the new government will face three immediate problems: the economy, the status of state institutions, and governance amid chaos at all levels of society and politics.

Park says the most pressing is the dire economic situation caused by mismanagement, exacerbated by the devastating February 6 earthquake. Therefore, the government must quickly introduce a fiscal package that addresses the high inflation rate, the current account crisis and the devaluation of the lira and address the dramatic loss of confidence in the Turkish economy.

The cost of the earthquake is estimated at 8-12% of GDP, a whopping sum. Given how poorly the Erdogan government performed after the earthquake, expectations that the new government will rehabilitate his victims and the infrastructure of the affected states should be high. However, such expenditures would be hit by the introduction of more traditional economic policies, including raising interest rates. In such a difficult environment, the new government must win domestic support by becoming as transparent and honest as possible in explaining its policies to a people who have lost trust during Erdogan's last decade in power.

The good news, Park says, is that Turkey's manufacturing base is solid and capable. It needs to redouble its efforts to increase and diversify its exports, primarily geographically, and to attract FDI again. Turkey will need significant foreign aid to achieve this, and access to restructuring funds. This support is likely to come mainly from the United States and Europe.

The second challenge, Park said, is to implement a transition process unparalleled in Turkey's modern history. This is because during his rule, Erdoğan, the "accomplished populist politician," placed every important state and societal institution under his dominance. From the judicial system to the central bank, public universities, most of the press, parliament, the military and the bureaucracy, each has been stripped of its independence.

The third task is to create a coherent governance structure from a disparate array of allies and external partners while addressing the contentious and divisive issues that divide them. It is understood that the focus will be on the promise of a return to parliamentary order and the elimination of excessive presidential system. This monumental task will require careful planning, discussion and a few years to accomplish.

Park says opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu is a well-meaning albeit uncreative person who comes from a bureaucratic background. Yet he exceeded all expectations by running a smart campaign in a calm, non-confrontational manner, in stark contrast to Erdogan, who did his best to employ divisive rhetoric in which the president's criticism was often considered treason and worthy of trial.

Park wonders whether Erdogan, who has a large entourage to protect him as well as his family and allies in the press, bureaucracy and other sectors, will try to delegitimize the election. He says the Turkish president tried it once when his party lost the Istanbul mayorship in 2019 and invented an excuse for a rerun of local elections. This backfired on him as Istanbulites voted in much larger numbers to oppose him.

However, for a peaceful transition, the next government may want to consider reaching an understanding with Erdogan and his family that provides them with immunity and a promise that they will be left alone, provided they do not engage in electoral deception and interfere with the next government's efforts to form an administration that governs the country.

The new leadership is likely to face unforeseen challenges. The various groups previously targeted by Erdogan's government are expected to move quickly against their former tormentors once the election results are announced. One can imagine, for example, the academics and students of Bogazici University, who continued to protest against Erdogan-appointed cadres who looted one of the country's best educational institutions, in an attempt to seize the university by force.

Given the huge domestic economic, political, and social issues that await the new government, the focus is likely to be on improving relations with the West, whose support Turkey desperately needs to fund massive post-earthquake reconstruction efforts and stabilize the economy. Unfortunately, at this early stage, foreign-policy conflicts can divert attention and energy from the task at hand.

Washington and Ankara are likely to reach an agreement on the presence of U.S. forces stationed in northern Syria that are involved with local Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State. This was an important source of tension between the two countries. Finally, Europe and the United States want to see Turkey reverse the course of the Erdogan era. To this end, it is also in their interest to be as lenient as possible with any new government in Turkey.

The transition is difficult because the new government will face three immediate problems: the economy, the status of state institutions, and governance amid chaos at all levels of society and politics.