Russia's winter offensive in Ukraine has failed. In the battle for Bakhmut, wave after wave of recruits has bled to death without gaining much ground. Quarrelling military leaders are bickering over scarce ammunition. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the sponsor of the private army "Wagner", threatens to retreat and sees the country already on the "verge of disaster".

At the same time, Ukraine is announcing a new advance. Some experts say that with the recent attacks on Russian supply centers, the offensive has already begun. The prospects are not bad. The Ukrainian army has received quite a bit of modern weapons from the West, and from the successes of the past year it has learned how to defeat Russians. True, no one can know how the counterattack will turn out. Ukraine wants all its territory back, including Crimea, but perhaps for now it will only regain part of its occupied territories.

Either way, American intelligence director Avril Haines is right when she says that Russia is so weakened at the moment that it cannot attack again this year. In the coming autumn, after the offensive of the Ukrainians, a state of affairs that experts describe as a "painful stalemate" could occur. In such phases, where no one wins and everyone only suffers, experience has shown that the willingness to take a break increases. This can come through agreements or even just as a de facto standstill. This has happened before. After the first climax of the war in 2015, such a phase lasted seven years. Only then did Putin strike again.

Russia will remain a predatory state

But if that happens, the West will face a test. NATO's democracies will then be tempted to simply get used to the sit-in war in the East. When the war was contained for the first time in 2015 by the Minsk agreements, attention quickly waned. Many members of the alliance forgot the promise to increase their defense spending towards two percent of gross domestic product, and America, under Donald Trump, questioned NATO as a whole. At that time, Germany became the main sponsor of the new Russian fascism through the gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

To prevent this from happening again, the West must prepare now for the time after the Ukrainian offensive. If the war freezes again, vigilance may weaken. When there seems to be nothing going on, the temptation to put scarce money into other projects rather than weapons will grow year after year.

Putin, however, would take advantage of the break. As long as he is in charge in Moscow, Russia will remain a predatory state. He could polish up his battered army and then attack again.

But if Putin were to actually subjugate Ukraine at the third attempt, the consequences for Europe and NATO would be devastating. It has already gone out on a limb for Ukraine with material and non-material aid. Now, however, their solemn promises to defend the sovereignty and integrity of this country would turn out to be empty words. This, in turn, could also weaken their promises of mutual assistance at home – most notably Article Five of the NATO Treaty, in which the Allies pledge to regard attacks against each individual as an "attack against them all." The allies could then diverge like chickens when the hawk comes. Some might be looking for special deals with America, others with Russia. Some would perhaps aspire to the atomic bomb.