Turkey is facing a choice of direction. After 20 years in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in a neck-and-neck race with his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, according to recent polls. In addition to a new head of state, voters will also decide on a new parliament in a week's time. In view of the tight starting position, the votes of Turks living abroad could be decisive this year in determining whether there will be a political change. 1.5 million people who are entitled to vote in Turkey live in Germany. It is the largest group outside of Turkey.
Othmara Glass
Editor in politics
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In past elections, they voted mainly for Erdogan and his party, the AKP. In the 2018 presidential election, for example, the incumbent received 65 percent of the vote, while in Turkey he received only 53 percent. There are various reasons why Erdogan is so popular with Turks living in Germany. One point is the migration history of Turkish guest workers, explains Yunus Ulusoy of the Center for Turkish Studies at the University of Duisburg-Essen. "They came from the rural regions of Turkey, the majority of whom vote conservatively." The largest opposition party, the CHP, on the other hand, is more likely to be elected by up-and-coming milieus, elites and secularists. "And these strata are underrepresented in Germany."
"Erdogan creates an emotional bond with Turkey."
In addition, there is a protest attitude against the German public, which is developing a negative attitude towards Erdogan due to the negative reporting. "Some of the people of Turkish origin can't understand them," says Ulusoy. "When they travel to Turkey, they find that Turkey has developed very well under Erdogan." Erdogan enjoys great popularity among younger Turks in Germany because he gives them the feeling of belonging. Third-generation Turks who have already been socialized in Germany still do not feel fully accepted by the majority society, says Ulusoy. "Erdogan, on the other hand, creates an emotional bond with Turkey."
Sinem Adar of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin adds that the AKP, as a governing party, is very well networked in Germany. Under her aegis, the electoral law was amended so that Turkish citizens residing abroad can also vote in specially equipped polling stations. Thanks to the new and old institutions such as religious associations, including DITIB, diaspora politics has become more systematic over the past decade. In addition, Turkish media are also often consumed in Germany. "We must not forget that 90 percent of the Turkish media are controlled by the AKP," says Adar. In recent years, the AKP in particular has managed to mobilize its voters in Germany. This year, according to Adar's impression, the opposition is also bringing more people to the polls.
In 2018, voter turnout was just under 50 percent, and this year it is likely to be significantly higher. An indication of this are the long queues in front of the polling stations, such as in Frankfurt. Although it is midweek, hundreds of people queue in front of the Turkish Consulate General in the morning. Many have come with friends and family members, from Darmstadt, Wetzlar, Aschaffenburg.
Consul General Erdem Tuncer estimates that about 5000,16 people cast their votes in Frankfurt every day. A security service ensures order in the queue and also lets the elderly and women with children in so that they don't have to wait too long. There are <> polling stations nationwide, wherever there are consulates. Turkey had applied for ten more sites that the Foreign Office did not approve, Tuncer says angrily. The Turkish foreign minister was also upset about this.