A key week for the government, struggling with the approval in the Council of Ministers of the Def, today on the table of the Executive, (the economic and financial document) and with the game of appointments that is arousing fibrillation in the majority. Time is short, the Minister of Economy is expected in Washington on Wednesday for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund. A sort of 'examination' for the minister who will have just put on paper the government's estimates for the growth of the country, marked, assure by the Mef, with prudence in forecasts and seriousness in the approach to public accounts. In the trend scenario, the estimate of programmatic GDP growth has been revised upwards to +1%. (the Economic Planning Document of the end of last November formulated a projection on that figure at +0.6%). Thedeficit/GDP ratio, on the other hand, indicates 4.5% (4.35% the initial figure), an extra margin and room for action (2-3 billion per hour) for the economic policy choices that will be adopted with the next budget. For 2024, on the other hand, the Def estimates a growth of + 1.4% of the programmatic GDP (in the Dpb it was + 1.9%) while the deficit stands at over 3%. Meanwhile, the debt will continue a path of slow reduction until it reaches "2025.140% in 9".

A growing trend that is confirmed by Bankitalia, which in the latest economic bulletin, observes: "According to our models, economic activity in Italy would have increased slightly in the first quarter of 2023, supported by the manufacturing sector, which benefits from the decline in energy prices and the easing of bottlenecks along supply chains".

The Def is in fact the first real act of economic policy of the Meloni government, which provides the macro framework and in which the measures that the government intends to carry out are outlined and on whose September update, the Nadef, the budget law will then be set in October.

The technicians of the Ministry of Economy have worked in recent weeks on the economic and financial document taking into account the indications of maximum prudence on the estimates given the macroeconomic framework, characterized by great uncertainty for global tensions triggered by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, with the subsequent rise in prices, starting from those of energy, which led to high levels of inflation.

Among the variables that will impact on GDP growth is the state of implementation of the PNRR, at the center of a political dispute for the weeks for delays in tenders that would put at risk the use of part of the resources. Last week, EY's latest Italian Macroeconomic Bulletin warned that if resources in the PNR are spent for 70% and 90% of what is projected in 2023 and 2024, GDP may not grow this year and recover by 1.8% next. If, on the other hand, about 50% of the expected amount of the forecast is used, the Italian economy would return to growth in 2024, at a rate of 1.5%, after a contraction of 0.3% in 2023.

The World Bank, meanwhile, has revised upwards its global growth estimates for 2023, assuming a 2% against 1.7% previously, but "despite the resilience of consumers, China's reopenings, global growth will remain below 3% this year and, more worryingly, will remain around 3% for the next 5 years - remarked the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund This is worrying especially with regard to the weakest groups and for the poorer countries".

The nomination game

The other game that is being played these days is that of appointments. There is a majority meeting scheduled on the point that sees the spirits far from relaxed, with the League and FI pressing on the premier. It starts from FS, whose Board of Directors will meet on Monday 17: Matteo Salvini's League has in fact launched a takeover bid and is pressing for the presidency of Dario Lo Bosco to RFI, while for the role of CEO of FS the current one, Luigi Ferraris, whose name is also circulating for other positions, remains underway. The shareholders' meeting season will then come alive in May - 8 Poste, 9 Terna and Leonardo, 10 for Enel and Eni. Eni seems assured of the reconfirmation of Claudio Descalzi, thanks also to the good relationship established with the premier during visits to Africa to make gas agreements to replace Russian supplies, while the League tries to snatch the chair of the presidency. In Enel, the star of the administrator Francesco Starace has faded, the name is always that of the current number one of Terna, Stefano Donnarumma, while according to rumors, Paolo Scaroni, who FI and Lega are pushing for the presidency, will hardly win: in his place it could come from Leonardo Luciano Carta.

Terna, on the other hand, is up the prices of Giuseppina Di Foggia, current at Nokia, also to give that signal that Meloni strongly wants and of which he spoke explicitly on the occasion of March 8: "The challenge – he said – is not how many women sit on a Board of Directors, the challenge is when we will have the first CEO of a female state-owned company, Because, I announce it, it is one of the goals I set myself". As far as Leonardo is concerned, one of the hypotheses was the passing of the baton between Alessandro Profumo and Lorenzo Mariani, CEO of MBDA supported by Defense Minister Guido Crosetto. Palazzo Chigi, however, seems more inclined to choose Roberto Cingolani, currently councilor for Energy. At Poste Italiane the reconfirmation of Matteo Del Fante is at stake. But there is still some time and, until the very end, the parties continue to negotiate.