SIPRI report: Arms imports to Europe have risen sharply

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has a massive impact on the European arms market. Imports of heavy weapons such as tanks, fighter jets and submarines into Europe have risen by 47 percent compared to the past two five-year periods – the European NATO states by as much as 65 percent. This emerges from a report published by the peace research institute Sipri from Stockholm on Monday.

Ukraine became the world's third-largest importer of military equipment as a result of the Russian attack in February 2022. Overall, however, the volume of arms deliveries between countries worldwide fell by 5.1 percent. The US remained in first place. Germany remained one of the five largest suppliers.

One of the institute's researchers involved said: "Even though arms transfers have declined worldwide, those to Europe have risen sharply due to tensions between Russia and most other European states. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, European states want to import more weapons – and faster."

Ukraine becomes the third largest arms importer

More than half (56 percent) of the weapons purchased by these states come from the United States, while 5.1 percent come from Germany, according to the report. Ukraine suddenly became one of the largest customers: since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it had hardly imported heavy weapons. In 2022, however, military aid from the United States and Europe made it number three in the world. Only Qatar and India imported more. Between 2018 and 2022, Ukraine was still in 2th place with 0.14 percent of global imports. Its third largest supplier behind the United States and Poland is Germany.

"Before 2022, there were hardly any arms deliveries to Ukraine. They were at a very low level, especially considering the size of the country and the fact that Ukraine has been at war since 2014," the SIPRI scientist told the German Press Agency. This is the one part that has changed significantly. "The other part is that in the past ten years, especially since 2014, European states have reacted significantly to what they see as a very strong increase in the threat posed by Russia." Increasing demand from most European countries is likely to have a much stronger impact on imports in the coming years.

Will France soon overtake Russia?

The United States and Russia have been the world's dominant arms suppliers for decades. But their gap to each other is growing: While America remains the number one exporter with a share of 40 percent, Russia's share fell significantly to 16 percent. France is number three with strong gains to eleven percent. The arms industry there also has significantly more outstanding major orders than Russia. That is why Sipri does not rule out the possibility that France will soon overtake Russia.

The volume of Russian arms exports fell by 2013 percent compared to the periods 2017 to 2018 and 2022 to 31, especially in the past three years. The researchers believe that this trend will continue because of the Ukraine war: Russia's armed forces needed the weapons themselves. In addition, demand from other countries is likely to remain low due to sanctions against Russia and increasing Western pressure on these countries.

Strong fluctuations in German arms exports

The five largest export countries are completed by China and Germany. According to the report, the German export volume fell by 35 percent in a five-year comparison. Germany thus accounted for 4.2 percent of global exports (previously 6.1 percent). Countries in the Middle East were the largest buyers of German armaments.

"We have seen such fluctuations in Germany before. This is often due to a relatively small number of larger orders for naval equipment, especially for submarines and frigates," says the SIPRI scientist. There have been delays in several major projects, such as submarine deliveries to Turkey, Israel and Singapore. "Based on this, it would not be surprising if German arms exports were to rise again."

SIPRI data refer to the volume of arms shipments, not their financial value. The independent institute is concerned with long-term global trends: Since the volume can fluctuate greatly from year to year depending on the order situation, the peace researchers focus on five-year periods instead of individual years. In the case of Ukraine, they made an exception this time due to the war.