Pensions in France: unions and government prepare for a decisive week
Strikers blocking the TotalEnergies refinery in Donges, France to protest against pension reform, March 10, 2023. © STEPHANE MAHE / REUTERS
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After its adoption in the Senate, the text of the pension reform will pass to the joint joint committee, with a vote in the National Assembly possible as of Thursday, March 16.
If the government wants to avoid a dangerous recourse to 49-3, on the side of the opponents, the leaders of the inter-union call for demonstrations, but remain against a hardening of the strike.
The union base continues despite everything with actions.
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In various sectors, the actions will multiply from Monday 13 while the unions remain torn on the question of a hardening of the strike, a kind of frying on the line between inter-union and its bases: certain federations at the CGT advocate a
hardening
, as in energy.
At the CFDT Transports, we are also for a renewable strike.
But on the side of the intersyndicale, the
leaders remain on a less hard
and less clear line, as illustrated by the number 1 of the CFDT Laurent Berger on Sunday March 12 on BFM-TV, speaking of the garbage collectors' strike which s started in Paris: “
On waste, there is no CFDT in the movement in Paris.
And I tell you: the CFDT will be concerned that we keep public opinion, we are not calling for this type of action
.
»
In general assemblies, on the picket lines or in processions, many demonstrators would like to move up a gear: some find the inter-union very shy.
This is the case of Anthony Auguste, a unionized Sud-Rail railway worker in Paris: “
The intersyndicale is very nice to have logos stuck together on a sheet and to have a unity.
But if this unit is to go into the wall, it's useless.
In any case, this week, we're really going to have a pretty physical and trying week, especially on Friday.
»
Parisian railway workers are planning numerous actions, while admitting that the renewable strikes of last week did not last long enough to be really effective.
Residents of the 16th arrondissement of Paris react to the garbage collectors' strike
Laurence Theault
The choice of modes of action against the pension reform divides the inter-union like prolonged strikes or blockages.
Here, the consequences of the garbage collectors' strike near the Senate in Paris, March 12, 2023. © Michel Euler / AP
The executive is preparing for several scenarios, including 49-3
The executive is preparing for a decisive week for Emmanuel Macron's five-year term.
The bill must continue its legislative course before a probable vote Thursday in the National Assembly.
Sunday March 12, the Prime Minister brought together the ministers on the front line on the pension reform to tighten government communication and go and snatch the voices that are missing in a meeting at Matignon kept secret until the last minute.
This is to avoid at all costs using article 49-3.
If the prospect of engaging the responsibility of the government seems to be approaching, the oppositions and the unions have warned, its use would be dangerous: the opposition brandishes the threat of a joint motion of censure.
And the message seems to have passed, said government spokesman Olivier Véran.
We don't want 49-3.
We wish to transform our relative majority into an absolute majority on the text of pensions, and we have given ourselves the means to do so.
Government spokesman Olivier Veran explains that the executive "does not want 49-3"
French government spokesman Olivier Veran after a ministerial meeting, Sunday March 12, 2023, to prepare for a crucial week regarding pension reform.
© CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT / AFP
Votes in the Senate and the Assembly on Thursday
Next step, the Joint Joint Committee (CMP).
Meeting on Wednesday, at the same time as an eighth day of mobilization against the text, seven deputies and seven senators will have to agree.
The most probable hypothesis, given the members, would be a “
conclusive
” CMP.
In this case, the next test will be a
vote on Thursday morning in the Senate
, then Thursday afternoon in the Assembly: this is where the Prime Minister could draw 49-3.
After ten appeals in a few weeks to this constitutional weapon, Elisabeth Borne knows that she is playing big if she uses it.
With 250 seats, the presidential camp must still find around forty votes to constitute a majority in the Assembly.
All eyes are therefore turned towards the Republican deputies and the recalcitrants within the majority, estimated between three and five.
The 49-3 scenario is therefore getting closer day by day and to trigger it, the Head of State should convene a Council of Ministers on Thursday morning to authorize the Prime Minister to use it.
► To read also: The Council of State had expressed reservations on the pension reform
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France
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Emmanuel Macron
Elisabeth Borne