His ideas do not fit much with European reality

French street protests and Ukraine war threaten Macron's future

  • The war in Ukraine is a tough test of Macron's strategy. Reuters

  • Protesters take part in a demonstration against pension reform in Toulouse, southern France. AFP

image

French President Emmanuel Macron came to power in 2017 on the back of a dual promise: to transform France and encourage Europe to act as a more effective power.

The French president's first term saw ups and downs, but today France is wider and more active, broadly, more entrepreneurial, job creation, and welcoming investors. The EU has also moved in Macron's direction.

Russia's war on Ukraine has shown that a 27-member rules-based club can hold together, think geopolitically and export weapons to a war zone.

Now, though, Macron faces problems on two fronts. His authority is being tested in the National Assembly and on the streets at home, and his leadership is being challenged abroad, too. How he responds will determine whether the leader of the EU's second-largest economy and the EU's most important military power can continue to modernize France and reshape Europe.

Macron's domestic problems relate to his plan to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64. The French live nearly a decade longer than in 1980, spending more time in retirement than their neighbors. Without reform, the pension system faces an annual deficit of €14 billion by 2030. But Macron failed to convince the French that reforming it was the right thing. Last year, voters denied him a majority in parliament. Now the unions want to defeat his project on the streets.

This pension reform is necessary for France. Macron needs to do a better job of explaining why it's not just a calculation, but part of a broader effort to get the French to work more and bring more French into the job market.

The unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, almost double the rate in America and Britain. The last low (5%) was recorded in the seventies. His government, too, needs to embrace opposition parties' claim that it has a better solution that involves more taxes on corporations and the wealthy. This is the last thing France needs. Despite Macron's tax cuts, the country's economy remains the most taxed in the eurozone. Thus, even if the painful blows continue, the president cannot back down.

If Macron cannot secure parliamentary support before the March 26 deadline, he can still pass the reform. But it is better to avoid this.

Left-wing opposition parties have repeatedly sought to cause chaos and obstruct parliamentary proceedings. They will take any opportunity to declare the reform illegitimate. The center-right opposition has also acted dishonestly, reluctant to support the change it also proposed in 1995 and 2010. There is no excuse for not supporting reform.

* Russian-Ukrainian War

Abroad, Russia's war on Ukraine has in many ways demonstrated Macron's call for a stronger European Union, somewhere between America and China, that can impose itself by force, not just trade and rules. Still, Macron is struggling to convince his allies that his policies, particularly on European security, are the best way to achieve this. He is not leading the debate over Ukraine. In Africa, he is losing influence to China, Russia and Turkey.

If Macron were to revive his leadership in the EU, he would do better spend less time thinking aloud about the future of a postwar settlement, and forging closer ties with countries, including Poland and the Baltic states, that remain suspicious of him. and wanting to pressure Ukraine prematurely for talks. After initially focusing on its diplomacy with Russia, France has swung strongly in favor of Ukraine. Its position is now close to that of America.

Yet Macron is often tempted to express ideas that America may share, but keep to itself. France, too, could do more to send heavy weapons to Kiev, and quickly.

A stronger Europe, faced with the threat of authoritarian forces and the danger of over-reliance on America, needs a strong France. Macron is now one of the most experienced leaders in Europe, has a lot of ideas, many of them good, and leads a brilliant diplomatic machine. This is a critical moment;

Deepening the separation

Unlike Britain, which more or less adapted to its post-imperial role, France was unable to accept the rise of the United States to the dominant economic and political power. Nor was France willing or able to offer a viable alternative to American (and now British) political and security support for post-communist states in Central and Eastern Europe.

Thus, the separation between France and the rest of the EU deepened. A year after Russian missiles landed on Ukrainian cities, Macron's view that Europe should "proactively address Russia's need for security guarantees" appears to have changed. In a prime example of the failure of Macron's strategy, his plea not to "humiliate" Russia over its war with Ukraine came weeks after ample evidence of Russian war crimes emerged in Bucha, a suburb of Kiev.

Today, it is clear that Macron's vision of so-called European strategic autonomy, never supported by any serious strategy or military capabilities, shattered and burned in Ukraine. Rather than leading Europe into a glorious era of integration, Macron is widening the very divisions in Europe he warned of in 2017. The confluence of noble ambition and unfavorable reality has revealed a diminishing role for France, more powerful Central and Eastern Europe, and an increasingly detached French president. A Europe that is stronger in the face of the threat of authoritarian forces and the danger of over-reliance on America needs a strong France.

7.2 %

The unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of last year, almost double the rate in America and Britain.