US renews commitment not to attack Pyongyang with nuclear or conventional weapons
What's Behind North Korea's Massive Missile Tests
North Korea will continue to conduct missile tests in 2023. AFP
Kim Jong-un oversees the missile tests. AFP
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A few days ago, North Korea launched a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile. It was Pyongyang's first intercontinental ballistic missile test in 2023, and the fifth such in less than a year.
Last week, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles. In response to the North's provocations, South Korea imposed further unilateral sanctions on four individuals and five institutions linked to North Korea's nuclear and missile program.
Victor Cha, a senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies for Asian Affairs and a former director of Asian affairs at the U.S. National Security Council, and Ellen Kim, deputy director of the Korea chair at the center, answer five important questions:
■ The first question: What is the importance of these missile tests?
Answer: Perhaps these tests can be considered training in the launch of these missiles and not a development test. Regarding the Hwasong-15, North Korean state media said the ICBM test was a "surprise training in launching an intercontinental ballistic missile," at the behest of Kim Jong-un, adding that the test was "clear evidence of a proven reliance on a powerful actual nuclear deterrent."
What matters is that North Korea has said the launch of the two short-range missiles was a tactical nuclear offensive exercise, the launches signal blocking U.S. access to the Korean Peninsula, and tactical nuclear attacks also target air bases in Gunsan and Cheongyeo, where U.S. F-16 fighter jets and South Korean F-35A stealth jets are stationed.
Second question: Why did North Korea conduct missile launches?
Answer: The ostensible justification for the launches is to counter the U.S.-South Korean nuclear simulation exercise and the annual joint military exercises, known as Key Resolve and Full Eagle. Kim Yujong, the sister of the North Korean president, explained that "there will be more missile tests."
The launches are more than just political statements, and demonstrate active North Korean training in its missile attacks against the United States, Japan and South Korea.
South Korea's response
Third question: How did South Korea, the United States and Japan respond?
Answer: The three countries conducted separate joint air drills involving a nuclear-capable U.S. B-1B bomber, accompanied by South Korean F-35A stealth jet fighters and Japanese F-15s. The joint air exercises, which were scheduled in advance, took place after US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made it clear during a visit to South Korea at the end of January that the US would deploy its military assets "at a faster pace".
Japan said a missile landed in its exclusive economic zone on Saturday, prompting the United States and South Korea to hold joint air exercises on Sunday.
Pyongyang said the Korean People's Army held drills on Monday in response to the South Korea-US exercises, blaming the two allies for the deteriorating security situation, according to a report by the North's official Korean Central News Agency.
"Through exercises punctuated multiple and very large missile launchers, the tactical nuclear attack demonstrates the KPA's full readiness for deterrence and its will to confront" against joint air exercises, the agency said.
Fourth question: What about China and Russia?
Answer: The UN Security Council held a session last Sunday at the request of Japan, but it did not pass any significant resolutions, nor did it impose sanctions, or any statements regarding North Korea's missile launches due to continued opposition from Russia and China.
The inaction of Beijing and Moscow shows a clear lack of responsibility, as Pyongyang's actions represent a clear violation of existing Security Council resolutions, to which the two countries were parties. Both sides, dissatisfied with U.S. defense measures in Taiwan and Ukraine, seem willing to allow the North Korean problem to worsen.
More provocations
Fifth question: Will there be more North Korean missile provocations?
Answer: Almost certainly. Through recent missile launches, North Korea is making clear that 2023 will not be a quiet year, and could see the levels of mismatch seen in 2022, when the North Korean regime conducted 37 missile tests that included more than 95 missile launches. Moreover, data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies show that when the United States and South Korea conduct joint military exercises amid a diplomatic dormancy between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea usually conducts large weapons demonstrations, and considers the "provocative" U.S. alliance exercises to be the cause. The fact is that the US-South Korea alliance exercises are defensive in nature.
The United States made its commitment not to attack North Korea with nuclear or conventional weapons in the Joint Six-Party Statement in 2005. In addition, the drills represent an important demonstration of South Korea's U.S. deterrence commitments, especially amid serious public concern about clear North Korean nuclear threats.
The researchers say the United States and South Korea are unlikely to cancel the planned military exercises.
South Korea, the United States and Japan have already held trilateral missile defense drills in international waters between Japan and the Korean Peninsula, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
• Through recent missile launches, North Korea makes clear that "2023 will not be a quiet year, and could see the levels of incompatibility seen in 2022, when the North Korean regime conducted 37 missile tests."
• North Korea said the launch of the two short-range missiles was a tactical nuclear offensive exercise, and the launches signal blocking U.S. access to the Korean Peninsula, and tactical nuclear attacks also target air bases in Gunsan and Cheongyeo, where U.S. F-16 fighter jets and South Korean F-35A stealth jets are stationed.