MOSCOW -

Between conducting a detailed and accurate investigation and calling for a swift retaliation, the positions of Russian military and political analysts towards the Bryansk Province incident ranged, amid expectations that the aftermath of the incident will not be the same as before.

Two days ago, the governor of Bryansk Province, Alexander Bogomaz, announced that a Ukrainian group had infiltrated the Klimovsk region in Bryansk Province (on the Russian-Ukrainian border), where it carried out “criminal and terrorist operations in the region,” which resulted in the death of one person and the injury of another, in addition to the detention of about 100 residents. the town.

According to observers, the indications of the operation go beyond the numbers, and represent a challenge similar to the bombing of the Crimean Bridge in October of last year, which Moscow dealt with as a blow to its reputation more than a material damage.

The initial steps were the Russian reactions, by inviting President Vladimir Putin to hold a special meeting of the National Security Council to discuss the incident file, and he also surprisingly canceled his visit to the Caucasus, which was scheduled for Friday.

The Corps of "Russian Volunteers" is an anti-Russian nationalist movement and has become part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Ukrainian press)

Russian Volunteer Corps

Although Kiev denied responsibility for the incident, and the so-called "Russian Volunteer Corps" claimed responsibility for the attack in a circulating video, Moscow confirms that "a Ukrainian regular reconnaissance and sabotage group is behind the implementation of the terrorist operation."

This Corps is described as an anti-Russian nationalist movement that was officially formed in August 2022, and became part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and calls on the Russian people to take up arms in the face of Putin's government.

It is small in terms of its numerical composition and includes mainly Russian immigrants who have been living on Ukrainian soil for a long time.

Russian sources also say that he is recruiting fighters from other countries.

The Corps had previously claimed responsibility for several sabotage operations inside Russia, as well as the killing of Daria Dugina, the daughter of the Russian thinker Alexander Dugin, who is described as "Putin's mind."


Draw attention

According to political analyst Alexander Vasiliev, the aim of the operation is to divert attention from "the failures of the Ukrainian forces, which have escalated in recent times, especially on the Artemysk (Bakhmut) axis, in addition to intimidating the residents of the border regions and destabilizing their confidence in the performance and mission of the Russian forces."

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Vasiliev describes the operation as "terrorist" in its basic dimension, but its implementation - according to his opinion - was carried out professionally in terms of revealing weaknesses in protecting the border areas, as they studied it well, and destroyed the surveillance cameras, before they withdrew.

He called for urgent measures to be taken to further strengthen the border, and to establish a security line on the other side of it, as was the case in Afghanistan.

Regarding Ukraine's official denial of any connection to the incident, the spokesman believes that it was an expected position not to embarrass Western supporters, and to avoid giving those opposed to Western support an excuse to demand the cessation of financial and military support to Kiev, if it is proven that the Ukrainian armed forces entered the border areas of Russia.

From his point of view, "Kiev has repeatedly used the Russian Volunteer Corps to clear itself of terrorism charges, and to promote a combat group that has never been seen in actual hostilities," in the context of a deliberate plan by the Ukrainian authorities to use pseudo-Russian movements to organize sabotage operations.

Also, one of the goals of such measures is - in Vasiliev's opinion - to create a picture of the conflict within Russian society, where the opposition and Western media are actively publishing reports stating that the attack was carried out by Russian people who disagree with the policy of the Russian authorities.


With an iron fist

On the other hand, Russian military experts call not to wait for the end of the investigations into the Klimovsk incident, and to deal harshly with what they describe as the new Ukrainian provocation, and among them is the military expert Anatoly Zhdanov.

According to the military expert Zhdanov, the talk is not about retaliatory strikes against Ukraine's infrastructure, as the sudden stimulus of operations should not lead to an increase in civilian casualties, but rather to send strong messages that targeting civilians inside Russian territory will be costly for those who do so.

At the same time, Zhdanov points out - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - the high possibility of using drones to monitor the region in preparation for the operation, adding that these aircraft have turned into difficult targets for any air defense, and their production has begun for Ukraine.

He concludes that the operation revealed the existence of gaps in the border guard system, which means preparing to repel new similar attacks, and the establishment of additional radar lines against drones, through the use of balloons with radars that reach a height of one kilometer, and after that "the whole sky will be under control." , as he put it.