When Volodymyr Zelenskyi was in Brussels three weeks ago, the public debate revolved around whether Ukraine would now get Western warplanes. The Ukrainian president's most pressing concern, however, was the supply of ammunition, especially for heavy howitzers with NATO standard caliber 155 millimeters.

Thomas Gutschker

Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and the Benelux countries, based in Brussels.

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Kiev received such guns from its partners last year: the towed British howitzer M777, the French model Caesar, mounted on a truck, and the heavy self-propelled self-propelled howitzer 2000 from German production. In precision and range, they are far superior to the Russian systems with calibre 152. However, the Russians have almost inexhaustible supplies, on some days they fire 50,000 shells. Ukrainians can only use one-tenth of that, and their supplies are said to run out in weeks rather than months.

Ukraine has an "absolutely existential need" for these grenades, an EU official said on Thursday. However, the Member States themselves have hardly any stocks. There are twelve manufacturers of 155-millimeter bullets in nine states, as well as in Norway. Their monthly capacity was recently estimated at a maximum of 25,000 units per month – as much as Russia shoots in one day. And the queue is long. If you place a new order now, you will receive delivery in a year at the earliest. For some manufacturers, the backlog is even almost two and a half years. This is the precarious starting point that could decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said last week.

Financial incentive for Member States

Borrell, the European Commission and the EU Defence Agency presented member states with a joint plan on Thursday to overcome the shortage and help Kiev. It stands on four pages of paper, which were first discussed in the Council's Political and Security Affairs Committee, will occupy EU defence ministers next week and should lead to a formal decision by the next European Council in three weeks. By EU standards, that would be very fast. The proposal has been submitted to the F.A.Z. and provides for three parallel strands of work.

Firstly, Brussels wants to create an incentive for the Member States to hand over to Ukraine as quickly as possible what they still have in stock. One billion euros from the European Peace Facility is to be spent on this. Since the beginning of the war, the Member States have been reimbursed for arms deliveries to Kiev from this special pot. Initially, the reimbursement rate was 85 percent, but then it fell to less than half of the use value because the states sent more goods, but the pot was capped. Now, according to the proposal in the paper, "up to 90 percent" could be reimbursed – to those states that deliver by a deadline, such as the end of April. After that, the EU official explained, there could be a staggered system: the more time passes, the lower the repayment.

Example of vaccine procurement

Secondly, replenishment should be coordinated between Member States. According to the official, all but Denmark, with the exception of Denmark, have agreed to do so. A joint order could either go through a lead state using its national procurement agency. Or via the EU Defence Agency (EDA), which could negotiate a contract with industry on behalf of several states. That is, of course, the priority of the institutions. It would be a first for the FDFA.

In both cases, the bundled order would "send a clear demand signal to the industry" and enable it to "increase its production capacity," the paper says. It is expected that a first group of states will commission the FDFA with a declaration of intent by the end of next week. This path is particularly interesting for those who do not have manufacturers with them. On the other hand, countries with a direct line to industry, such as Germany, France and Italy, are likely to coordinate more nationally. States must bear the costs themselves. However, deliveries from such orders to Kiev could also be reimbursed from the common pot.

Thirdly, the EU Commission itself wants to take action to increase production capacity. Although it is not allowed to buy weapons with money from its budget, it could use its instruments to strengthen the arms industry. The paper mentions, for example, "measures for the efficient reorganisation of supply chains" and loans from the European Investment Bank. The official explained that a 500 million fund could also be set up, with which the EU Commission wants to promote the joint procurement of armaments by several member states.

The model is the joint procurement of vaccines during the pandemic. Although this was initially a problem, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton succeeded in getting pharmaceutical companies to ramp up production and remove bottlenecks. The Frenchman is now playing a central role again, he is responsible for armaments policy. The relevant Directorate-General is already in the process of identifying weaknesses. "This will be a real challenge," the official said. But the "next possible quantum leap in European integration, in the field of defence", is already emerging.