Political turmoil, the proximity of the war in Ukraine, a Russian rocket in the air and an alleged planned Russian coup attempt.

The situation is tense in Moldova, a country that is increasingly mentioned by the Kremlin in threatening terms.

In the past month, Russia has claimed to have seen signs of an imminent Ukrainian attack on the breakaway region of Transnistria.

In connection with this, NATO and Ukraine have been warned not to attack the Russian troops stationed there.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently told Russian state media that the West aims to create an aggressive and anti-Russian Moldova - "a new Ukraine".

"Russia's influence threatened"

According to Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies, the heightened Russian tone is explained by the fact that the Moldovan government has clearly shown that it wants to throw off Russia's influence over the country's politics.

- They have seriously begun formulating a policy that would enable a future Moldova that is part of the EU.

I think that is an important reason why this is happening, he says.

Ominous rhetoric

Russia's words about an attack on Transnistria follow a clear pattern, says Hugo von Essen.

- This is exactly what Russia has done before: before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war Russia started in Ukraine in 2014, the war in Georgia in 2008 and the war in Moldova in 1990-1992, he says.

- It is claimed that there is a threat against Russian soldiers or against a Russian-speaking minority.

It is claimed that it poses a threat to Russia proper and that one has the right to militarily defend one's interests or countrymen.

At the same time, he points out that this does not mean that Russia will act against Moldova.

- This rhetoric is not always followed by military aggression.

We cannot say that this means that Russia will start an aggression, says Hugo von Essen.