The head of the Russian Advisory Council for International Affairs and Russian Security, Fyodor Lukyanov, confirmed - in a report published by the "Profile" newspaper - that the position that Russia will occupy in a highly changing reality depends directly on the outcome of the Russian "military operation" in Ukraine.

The writer saw that both the Ukraine war and the campaigns launched by the United States from the 1990s to the early 2010s share many similarities.

The most important of these is declaring slogans instead of defining goals clearly, and the absence of specific criteria for victory has been replaced by “ideological declarations.”


Lukyanov pointed out that all American operations since World War II revolve around maintaining the international hierarchy, that is, the bipolar balance during the Cold War or the subsequent American hegemony.

Therefore, it did not give importance to the results of military operations that negatively affected the reputation of certain presidents or parties and the international position. When the situation worsened - as happened in Vietnam and Afghanistan - the United States often decides to withdraw.


difference

Lukyanov believed that the nature of the Russian military operation differs from the American operations.

As it is located in the area adjacent to its borders, and given that the entire Russian society is affected by this process, withdrawal in this case means causing a social, political and even cultural shock whose consequences cannot be predicted.

Knowing that the balance of forces of the opponents - the factor that Russia considered to be in its favor in the beginning - has become different, in addition to the military capabilities of Ukraine - supported by the West - that do not allow the exclusion of scenarios opposing Moscow.

Therefore, Russia will not be able to withdraw even if it wanted to.

According to the Russian writer, the second difference between the Russian operation and the American one lies in the fact that the battle is not taking place in order to preserve the current international hierarchy, but in order to establish a new one.

Regardless of the motive behind the implementation of the military operation, it constitutes a challenge to the leaders of the former world order.

He pointed out that a year later, the "military operation" that was initially aimed at "protecting the population of Donbass" turned into a battle for the distribution of powers in the world, and then into a world war.

Meanwhile, the US-led bloc united to defend its positions and mobilize unprecedented aid for Ukraine.


international standing

The writer asked about the possibility that Russia's position in the international system would be strengthened or retreated as a result of the conflict. Almost all over the world - the perception of Russia as an influential international player is reaching its peak.

However, the "Russian military operation" - which did not take place according to the drawn scenarios - contributed to changing the assessment of Russia's strength and capabilities, as foreign observers concluded that Moscow's capabilities were "limited".

At the same time, the writer says that what happened last year showed that Russia's degree of flexibility and its ability to adapt to external pressures exceeded expectations.

And through that, it confirmed its role as an indispensable state.

Lukyanov believed that the outcome of the Russian military operation - regardless of the tasks it may define - is sufficient to reveal the true weight of Russia and its position on the world stage for a long time.

Not to mention that Russia's geographical characteristics and global political presence allow it to play a very important role without taking drastic measures.