China has begun to speak out in earnest about the war in Ukraine. Following Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party, who is the head of Chinese diplomacy, visited Russia and met with President Putin on 22 March, on 1 March, the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a 24-point statement on his country. Recently, there have been a series of observations in the West, including the United States, that China will provide lethal weapons to Russia. Putin said he was "looking forward to Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia," and Ukrainian President Zelensky also said he plans to "meet with President Xi Jinping." China's role in the war in Ukraine appears to be growing suddenly.

This is in line with the situation in China. In the meantime, China has been "snoring" with domestic problems, such as the surge in COVID-12 infections, the spread of blank protests, and President Xi Jinping's third consecutive term. Xi's third consecutive term has now been confirmed, and the COVID-19 situation is relatively stable. With the declaration of "With Corona," even overseas travel has become free, and China is trying to solve its diplomatic homework.


Xi Jinping Invites Belarusian President to 'Russian Alliance'

Of immediate note is the Belarusian President's visit to China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 25th that Belarusian President Lukashenko will pay a state visit to China from the 28th to the 2nd of next month. He made it clear that this visit was made at the invitation of President Xi Jinping.



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▲ Belarusian President Lukashenko visits China on the 28th


Belarus is a representative friend of Russia. It is almost the only country that can help Russia enter the war. President Lukashenko has been in power for nearly 30 years with Putin's full support, and as if to reciprocate, he provided Belarus as a forward base when Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February last year. There are reports that Russia, which is struggling in the war, is encouraging Belarus to enter the war, and Belarus and Russia have created a "regional coalition" under the pretext of responding to the deteriorating situation in the border areas of Ukraine and Poland. Ukraine is stationing troops in the border area with Belarus in preparation for the invasion of Belarus.

Under these circumstances, President Xi Jinping's invitation to President Lukashenko can be seen as quite deliberate. China's official Global Times said that discussions of the war in Ukraine were part of President Lukashenko's agenda during his visit to China. There may be talks with President Xi Jinping about whether Belarus will enter the war and China's support for Russia. From China's point of view, it can have the effect of turning the world's eyes to China. With this, China is expected to demonstrate that China is the only country that can mediate the war in Ukraine.


Western "China does not qualify as a mediator" ... Russian "Welcoming"

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Earlier, the West, including the United States and Europe, reacted coldly to China's ambitious statement titled "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis." The 12-point document includes an early start to direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, a ban on the use and threat of nuclear weapons, a final total ceasefire, and the suspension of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, but nothing has changed much from China's previous position. The United States and others have accused China of being ostensibly neutral, but actually siding with Russia. Criticism of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that calls for the withdrawal of troops from Russian troops are missing in China's position statement. With Russia occupying part of Ukraine's territory, it is judged that entering into a ceasefire will inevitably benefit Russia in the end. Voices of "China is not a true mediator" and "it is not qualified to mediate" erupted from Western countries. Russia welcomed the statement that it "appreciates China's position to contribute to a peaceful solution," while U.S. President Biden downplayed China's statement as "irrational ideas that can only benefit Russia."

Ukraine has taken a cautious stance. "The fact that China has started talking about Ukraine is not bad," Zelensky said, adding, "China's position statement has something to consider." "Some parts agree with China's proposal and some don't, but we need to work with China on resolving the situation." If China intervenes in the war on Russia's side, the situation could change drastically, so it is interpreted as a way to avoid making China an enemy. Because we know that China can be a 'game changer'.


China's Arms Offering Theory Against Russia Rapidly Rises... China's choice is

The question is whether China will provide weapons to Russia. For one year, China has officially declared neutrality and drew the line at arms support for Russia. Private Chinese companies also only provide Russia with non-lethal equipment such as helmets and bulletproof vests. China has strongly criticized the United States and Europe's arms support for Ukraine, calling it "pouring fuel on fire."

Recently, however, there have been reports that China will provide weapons to Russia. CNN reported on the 1th that "China is positively considering providing drones and ammunition to Russia" and that it is "negotiating on prices, etc." Germany's Der Spiegel reported that "Chinese manufacturers are in discussions to deliver 24 suicide attack drones to Russia in April," while the Wall Street Journal reported that "China is also discussing with Russia the option of providing cannons." Reports have been pouring in since US Secretary of State Blinken said on 100 March that "China is considering providing lethal weapons to Russia."



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▲ CNN broadcast in the United States reported on the 24th that China is considering providing drones and ammunition to Russia.


China has outwardly dismissed it as "catching clouds." Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin raised his voice at a regular briefing on 23 March, saying, "The US claim that China will provide weapons to Russia is an insult and an insult to China." However, it is true that it is difficult for China to ignore Russia's request for assistance forever. Increasingly, the tide is turning against Russia. President Biden personally visited Kyiv, Ukraine, and pledged to strengthen arms support, and several European leaders also visited Ukraine one after another and pledged support. The main German main battle tank, the Leopard 2, also arrived in Ukraine for the first time. In response, Russia reportedly continues to ask China for support with missiles, drones, armored vehicles, etc.



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If China gives Russia arms support, it could further strengthen the relationship between the two countries against the United States. President Putin owes a large debt to President Xi Jinping, who may later invade Taiwan and demand that Putin repay this debt. The problem is economic and diplomatic isolation. The United States and Europe have set China's arms support to Russia as a "red line." If Russia provides weapons, it has vowed to sanction a secondary boycott, not only the company concerned, but also the banks involved. It's a big burden on China, which is just starting to recover from three years of COVID-3 lockdowns. Moon Il-hyun, a professor at the Chinese University of Political Science and Law, said, "China's arms support for Russia means that China and the United States, and China and Europe cross the Rubicon." Professor Moon continued, "The question is whether to block the catastrophic consequences that Russia's defeat and Putin's fall will bring to China, or to pursue economic recovery by improving relations with the United States, especially Europe, in exchange for acquiescing to Russia's defeat." It means that China's worries are bound to be great. Diplomats are speculating that President Xi Jinping will visit Russia in April. Around Xi's visit to Russia, there is speculation that China's options will emerge.