Environment

The report of EU scientists

Will the return of El Niño bring new record temperatures to the planet? Here's what science says

2022 was the fifth warmest year ever, El Niño could make 2023 even warmer

20/04/2023

Reuters/Video Plus

According to European climate scientists, in 2023 or 2024 the average temperature of the planet could break a new record.

The causes? The anthropogenic climate change that continues substantially undisturbed and the early return of El Niño, the meteorological phenomenon that, periodically, causes an anomalous warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean and is capable of influencing the climate globally.

SEE ALSO

Discovery of a new pristine coral reef in the Galapagos

The climate spiral: this is how the Earth warmed from 1880 to 2022

Climate models indicate that towards the end of 2023 the world will experience the return of El Niño, after three years in which La Niña, its meteorological counterpart that generally lowers global temperatures slightly, dominated the Pacific.

During El Nino, winds blowing west along the equator slow down and warm water is pushed eastward, creating warmer temperatures at the surface.

"El Nino is normally associated with record temperatures globally. It is not yet known whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024, but I think it is more likely yes than not," said Carlo Buontempo, Director of the European Climate Change Service Copernicus.

Climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions at the end of summer in the northern hemisphere and the possibility of the phenomenon intensifying towards the end of the year, Buontempo told Reuters.

The warmest year on record so far in the world was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Niño.

In fact, climate change due to CO2 emissions has fueled extreme temperatures even in the intermediate years. The last eight years have been the eight warmest in the world on record, confirming the long-term global warming trend.

Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute, says El Niño-fueled temperatures could worsen the effects of climate change that the planet has already experienced in recent years, such as the so-called 'weather whiplash', the sudden swing between opposite extreme weather events, heat waves, droughts and wildfires.

"If El Niño develops, it is very likely that 2023 will be even warmer than 2016, considering that the world has continued to warm because humans continue to burn fossil fuels," Otto said.

EU Copernicus scientists published on Thursday a report on the climate extremes the world experienced last year, the fifth warmest year on record.

Europe experienced its hottest summer ever in 2022, while extreme rains caused by climate change caused disastrous flooding in Pakistan and in February the level of Antarctic sea ice hit an all-time low.

According to Copernicus, the global average temperature is now 1.2°C higher than in pre-industrial times and, despite commitments made by governments, global CO2 emissions continued to rise last year.