After reviewing the three main themes that dominated the intense speech of the administration of US President Joe Biden on the occasion of the one-year anniversary of its war in Ukraine against the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is the focus of Ukraine, Russia and the United States, it became clear that the complexity and difficulty of the current political and military situation does not indicate any near end to this war.

A quick look at the US Department of Defense's report on the military support it injected in the first year of this war, in addition to German and British support in particular, shows us the magnitude of the intensity of the fire on the battlefield against Russian forces, and the level of sophistication of the weapons and equipment they use against them, which Russia has not seen in its previous wars since World War II. The whole world is watching with great eagerness the developments of the war in Ukraine, and they are very worried about what it might turn out. Where is this war headed? What are the expected future scenarios?

There is no glimmer of hope that the war will stop this year, and this means that it will head towards further escalation in equipment and methods, and more human and logistical losses without any party being able to resolve it in its favor.

What increases the complexity of this war is that it has become fateful for all parties involved in it, Russia, the United States, Ukraine and European countries, especially Germany and Britain, and it has become inevitable for each of these parties to emerge victorious in order to be able to achieve the goals of its participation in it, and to justify the losses and sacrifices it made for it, which are enormous sacrifices and losses, which cannot be forgiven without victory, and its results and future effects cannot be exceeded in all fields, and at all levels and levels.

Possible future scenarios

In light of the positions of the parties involved in the war, led by the United States and Russia, and to foresee the future of this war, we review the main possible scenarios that may end up in it, and the foundations of each of them, which are as follows:

Scenario One: War Stops

This scenario deals with the extent to which political, military or economic variables are possible, which may prompt the main parties to the war, one or all of them, to declare the cessation of the war soon, before the end of its second year at the latest. This scenario is typically realized by one of the following possibilities:

First: The launch of successful political negotiations between the parties to the war, under the supervision of the United Nations, or through external mediation. This possibility is unlikely for the following reasons:

  • Russia insists on its right to Ukrainian territory and its right to secure its borders, and on rejecting the hegemony of the United States and the West over the international system, and Ukraine insists on extending its sovereignty over all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, and on its right to enter into security alliances that suit it, and the United States, and behind it its allies and partners, insists on supporting Ukraine in extending its sovereignty and independence of decision, and on subjugating Russia to international law and the Charter of the United Nations, and to stop its threat to international security and stability and the rules-based international order.
  • The United Nations cannot force the parties to the war to stop it.
  • The widening distance between the demands of the parties to the war, the absence of any opportunity to meet them, and the absence of any stable and stable ground suitable for the success of any initiative of external mediation between the parties to the war.
  • Each side to the war claims that it has superiority and control of the battlefield is in its interest, and that victory is its ally.
  • The United States and its allies are keen to fuel the war so that their goals can be achieved.

Second, the declaration of unilateral and unconditional cessation of the war by Russia or Ukraine. The United States and its allies are currently promoting the idea that it is in the hands of President Putin who started the war and who is able to make the decision to stop it and withdraw unconditionally from Ukrainian territory. This possibility is also unlikely for the following reasons:

  • This announcement will not happen from the Russian side, as it represents for President Putin his political end, and the end of his regime. This automatically means the creation in Russia of a new political order, consistent with Western values, subject to American hegemony, and a rules-based international order. This will result in Russia losing its position as a major political, economic, and military power influential in the regional and international arenas. This is what Putin will not allow at all.
  • This announcement will not happen from the Ukrainian side, no matter how long the losses and sacrifices are, because this means the fall of Ukraine into the hands of the Russian army, and the advent of a loyal Ukrainian government that ends the political history of the Ukrainian president and his regime. This will push the Ukrainian president to further harden political positions, escalate militarily, and develop the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian army.
  • The declaration of cessation of war by the Ukrainian side also means the end of the Western project in Ukraine, the arrival of NATO to the Russian border, and the end of the objectives of the United States in subordinating Russia, and behind it China, to Western values and the rules-based international order. Hence, the administration of US President Biden stressed the commitment of the United States, with its Democratic and Republican parties, to stand by Ukraine until victory no matter how long it takes, and urged the Ukrainian army and people to withstand and valor in the battle until victory is achieved, regardless of the sacrifices.

The United States and its allies are working to end the war by creating unrest within Russia that leads to the elimination of President Putin and his regime, lowering the cost of the war and preventing its expansion outside Ukraine, or its transition to an unconventional war in which Putin uses tactical weapons of mass destruction to control Ukraine.

Third: Military, economic and popular turmoil inside Russia due to the high casualties in the ranks of the army and the protracted and costly of the war without achieving a decisive victory as expected, which may lead to a popular reaction that ends with the fall of President Putin's regime. This possibility is the closest, easiest and shortest that the United States and Western countries seek politically, militarily and in the media, and rely on to end the war, reduce its cost and prevent its expansion outside Ukraine, or its transition to an unconventional war that forces Putin to use tactical weapons of mass destruction to control Ukraine, and the United States and Western countries seek to do so by resorting to the following:

  • Isolate Russia internationally, reject and stigmatize it with the most vile qualities, and accuse it of destabilizing international stability and rebelling against international legitimacy and the rules-based international order.
  • Mobilizing UN organizations and the international community against Russia and President Putin.
  • The Russian army inflicted significant losses in personnel and equipment.
  • Providing the Ukrainian army with the latest conventional weapons produced by Western military factories and increasing its deterrence capacity.
  • Convincing the Russian people and the world that this is President Putin's war, not the war of the Russian people.
  • Escalating psychological warfare against members of the Russian army, broadcasting many news and information to weaken their combat motivation, such as exaggerating the number of deaths in the ranks of the Russian army, its inability to make progress in the battle, convincing it that Putin is pushing Russia to confront the United States and the West without justification, talking about a conflict between the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner's forces, and clashes between their forces on the battlefield, as well as talking about the visit of masked people to Russian high schools to convince students to join the ranks of the army, which The United States and the West have further accused him of committing humanitarian crimes against civilians, raping women and abducting Ukrainian children and transferring them to Russia.
  • Threaten to gather information and prosecute those responsible for these crimes and abuses before the International Criminal Court.
  • Tightening economic, commercial and technological sanctions on individuals and companies.

    • Despite the logic of this possibility, it is not possible to happen in the next two years at least if the rhythm of the battles continues as it currently exists, as President Putin is following these details well, working to confront their effects, and mobilizing the Russian people and the Russian army in favor of war, as a pivotal national war against the West, which seeks to undermine Russia's regional and international standing, and threaten its future interests.

    The possibility of this possibility rises if the war exceeds its third year, and the Putin administration fails to control the whole of Ukraine, not just the eastern provinces, as the situation inside Russia will begin to boil against President Putin, and the position of the United States and its allies against him politically and militarily will become more aggressive.

    In conclusion, there is no glimmer of hope that the war will stop this year, which means that it will escalate further equipment and methods, and to more human and logistical losses without any party being able to resolve them in their favor.

    (To be continued.. second scenario: continuation of the war)