It rises to 5.2% during 2025

The Central Bank expects the national economy to grow by 4.2% in 2024

The Central Bank maintained its estimate of GDP growth at 3.1% in 2023. Archive

The Central Bank of the Emirates expects the UAE’s overall GDP to grow by 4.2% in 2024, rising to 5.2% in 2025, while it maintains its estimate of 3.1% growth in 2023.

The Central Bank also expected, in its quarterly review report for the fourth quarter of 2023, non-oil GDP growth by 4.7% in 2024 and 2025, and oil GDP growth by 2.9% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025.

The Central Bank stated that the consolidated financial balance of the UAE recorded a surplus of 61 billion dirhams during the first nine months of last year, equivalent to 4.4% of the gross domestic product, and total revenues amounted to about 370 billion dirhams, while expenses amounted to about 309 billion dirhams.

The Central Bank report expected that imposing a federal tax on companies would finally contribute to further strengthening government financing and contributing to diversifying sources of income away from the oil sector.

The report indicated that the non-oil private sector continues to show signs of strong economic activity, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index reached 56.6 in January 2024, against the backdrop of continued business confidence in the economic outlook, as this optimism is based on expectations of continued strength in demand and sales, which is expected to increase. It supports a steady expansion in production, along with the potential for establishing new projects and increasing investment.

The report noted that the Purchasing Managers' Index in Dubai reached 56.6 last January, which indicates sustainable growth in the emirate's non-oil private sector.

According to the Central Bank’s report, positive readings related to employment and wage growth indicate strong consumption in the future. The number of employees in the private sector, as measured by the three-month moving average, increased by 3.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the moving average of salaries rose. For three months in the last quarter of the same year, by 7.4% compared to the same period in 2022, which enhanced the purchasing power of individuals.