Storage operators still do not rule out a gas shortage next spring, even if natural gas storage facilities are fully filled at the beginning of winter. This is the result of updated modelling presented by the industry association Initiative Energien Speicher (Ines) in Berlin on Friday. Accordingly, in the scenario of a cold winter like in 2010, a level of consumption in January, February and March 2024 characterized by the current savings could no longer be fully covered. In this scenario, the stores would be completely drained in January. "We must not lull ourselves into a false sense of security," said Ines Managing Director Sebastian Bleschke, according to a statement.

On Thursday morning, German storage facilities were a good 76 percent full, according to the European storage association GIE, and the trend is rising. The storage association Ines assumes that they will be 1 percent full on September 100 and that this level will be maintained until the beginning of November. The legal filling level requirement of 95 percent as of November 1 would thus be complied with. According to Ines, moderate to low liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in Europe over the summer will be sufficient to fully fill gas storage facilities in Germany.

A lot of natural gas from Norway

With a normal temperature curve as in the European weather year 2016, the association expects a filling level of 38 percent on February 1, 2024. With a warm winter like 2020, the modelling for February 1 assumes a filling level of just under 65 percent. By comparison, in the past, mild winter of 2022/2023, the filling level was just under 1 percent on February 2023, 79.

"Against the backdrop of the current differences between summer and winter gas prices, it can currently be assumed that filling will continue to progress in the coming months," Bleschke said. The current level of imports is quite sufficient for this.

According to the Federal Network Agency, an average of 260 gigawatt hours of natural gas per day were pumped into the German pipeline network via the new German LNG terminals in the first six days of June. By way of comparison, an average of 1132 gigawatt hours of natural gas per day came from Norway by pipeline during the same period. One gigawatt hour corresponds to the annual consumption of about 50 households with a consumption of 20,000 kilowatt hours per year.

The association has 15 members. According to their own figures, they represent more than 90 percent of German storage capacities and about 25 percent of gas storage capacities in the EU.