The situation on the stock market can be described as lethargic. This is reflected in the share price development in recent weeks. The record high reached by the Dax on May 19 at 16,331 points is currently a good 2 percent away. On Wednesday, the Dax was 15.948 percent lower in early trading at 0,3 points. At present, there is little to suggest that equity markets will make significant gains in the second half of the year. According to the current comments of market observers, the opposite is to be expected.

Markus Frühauf

Editor in business.

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On Tuesday, the former chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jürgen Stark, together with Werner Krämer, senior economist at Lazard Asset Management, published an outlook that is very critical of the role of central banks. Stark announced his resignation from the ECB in September 2011 because of his criticism of the bond purchases. Now he accuses the central banks of partly to blame for the current difficult market situation.

"Central banks have gambled away trust"

They would have led markets to believe that interest rates would remain at 2024 levels into 2021, or perhaps even fall. Investors and banks would have relied on this. "Central banks have sent the wrong signal to the markets, encouraging them to take more risks," says Stark. The central banks would have gambled away trust. Now it will take a long time for the markets to get used to the normality of higher interest rates. Investors would have to get used to higher inflation and interest rate levels in the longer term, according to the outlook of Stark and Lazard economist Krämer. The transition to the new interest rate regime is also associated with significant corrections in the markets.

Steven Bell, chief European economist at Columbia Threadneedle, is preparing for weak stock markets. In his commentary on Tuesday, he wrote of seemingly good conditions, but the stock markets could weaken as the year progresses. He expects further interest rate hikes in the US so that the Fed can achieve and maintain its inflation target of 2 percent. Therefore, it is likely that corporate profits will come under pressure again. In Bell's view, equities should be taken with a grain of salt. Although he does not expect a dramatic decline, he considers the recent rally to be exaggerated.

Markets too complacent

The markets are obviously too complacent for the senior investment strategists of the French fund company Amundi and ignored the numerous risks. There are signs of a discrepancy between fundamentals and inflated valuations in many areas, Vincent Mortier and Matteo Germano warned on Tuesday. They remain cautious about future corporate earnings, which is why the two Amundi strategists remain defensive on equities and corporate bonds. The reason is the slowdown in growth. The American economy will cool down.

The chief economist of the Bad Homburg-based asset manager Feri, Axel D. Angermann, expects a real recession in the USA. The Fed's sharp tightening of monetary policy to curb high inflation is leaving an increasingly clear mark on aggregate demand. Although the agreement in the dispute over the debt ceiling of the USA is to be welcomed, it is possible that it is precisely the associated spending cuts by the state that provide the decisive impetus for the recession scenario.

Marko Behring, Head of Asset Management at Fürst Fugger Privatbank, arguessimilarly: "The supposed solution to the sovereign debt problem could even slow down the markets. The U.S. needs to replenish the treasury and is likely to issue bonds on a larger scale."