In the political career of the German Vice-Chancellor, the evening of May 16, 2023 will forever mark a deep turning point. It was the hours in which he made it clear to the architect of his most important project, the climate transition, that their paths would have to separate. Patrick Graichen, his state secretary, had always told him the full truth about his own conflicts of interest only when there was no other way, at least according to the minister's account.

Ralph Bollmann

Correspondent for economic policy and deputy head of economics and "money & more" of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung in Berlin.

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Now more than ever, Habeck's political future depends on Graichen's last project, the Heating Act. The critics of the project, loud in the FDP, only slightly quieter in the SPD, now smell morning air. They see an opportunity to soften or even postpone the project, some of the once sharpest critics of the state secretary are already talking Graichen up to the greatest expert of all time, without whom a quick legislative decision is by no means possible – although the ball is no longer in the ministry's court since the cabinet decision a good four weeks ago, but with the parliamentary groups in the Bundestag.

This is where the citizens will be decided in the coming weeks. The coalition partners had originally agreed that the law should be passed before the summer break – i.e. by 7 July, the last session of the Bundestag; an objection by the Federal Council could then only delay the project, but not stop it.

Not all obligations take effect immediately

Superficially, the three coalition parties are arguing very fiercely, but possible compromises are already emerging in the nuances. For example, in the battle over deadlines. "I am sure that we will pass the Heating Act in the Bundestag before the summer recess. That's what the coalition has discussed," says Green parliamentary group leader Katharina Dröge. But here it depends on the word "law". This is because a Bundestag resolution and the entry into force of the paragraphs on 1 January 2024 do not have to mean that the planned replacement obligations will also take effect on this date.

Dröge's colleague Rolf Mützenich, the head of the SPD deputies, already says this quite clearly. "We should now quickly create clarity and pass the law before the summer recess, if possible," he says, apparently conciliatory to the Greens. But he adds: "We have to think carefully about when the new rules will apply. After all, citizens need planning security, especially against the background of municipal heat planning, for example with regard to possible district heating offers."

In this case, there is also consensus with the FDP. "The deadlines as a whole need to be revised. For example, the entire law must be synchronized with municipal heat planning," says deputy parliamentary group chairman Lukas Köhler. "When I decide on my future heating system, I have to know whether there will be a district heating connection, for example." Unlike the Greens and the SPD, however, he demands: "In order to carefully complete these plans, we must take sufficient time to revise the law."