The federal, state and local governments will probably have to make do with less tax revenue next year than assumed in the fall. According to Thursday, the tax estimators assume that 30.8 billion euros less will flow into the coffers than expected. In total, they expect revenues of 2024.962 billion euros for 2.
The main reason for the decline is the inflation compensation for income tax decided according to the last estimate. "We are giving people and businesses back around 34 billion euros annually over the estimated period," said Finance Minister Christian Lindner. The estimation period covers the years up to 2027 – here, the estimators forecast an average of around 30 billion euros less revenue per year than recently. The state is keeping its promise not to enrich itself from inflation, Lindner stressed. In 2025, according to forecasts, tax revenues for the state as a whole will rise above the threshold of one trillion euros for the first time.
According to the forecast, the federal government itself will have around 377.3 billion euros at its disposal next year. This gives Lindner 13 billion less leeway in its budget for 2024 – the hoped-for easing of the budget dispute in the federal government, which has been deadlocked for months, is not forthcoming.
Budget gap of around 20 billion euros
Lindner has identified a budget gap of around 20 billion euros. Among other things, additional costs must be compensated for by the collective bargaining agreement in the public sector and higher interest rates. This gap must be generated through renunciation, Lindner emphasized. "We can only spend the money that the people and businesses in this country generate," he explained. "We all have to face this budgetary reality."
Lindner insists on complying with the debt brake prescribed in the Basic Law again next year. On the other hand, he also rules out tax increases to further increase revenues. His calculations therefore only work out if some ministerial colleagues renounce expenditures and wishes.
Because of the discrepancies in the traffic light coalition about this, the finance minister had completely renounced the presentation of the usual budget parameters. He is also unable to meet the initially targeted deadline for the presentation of the government draft to the cabinet. He will give the plans for the year 2024 only after June 21 in the ministerial round, said the FDP leader on the way to the meeting of the G7 finance ministers in Niigata, Japan. After that, it's the turn of the Bundestag, which wants to pass the budget at the beginning of December.
The Tax Estimation Working Group meets twice a year, in spring and autumn. The committee is made up of experts from the Federal Government, the leading economic research institutes, the Federal Statistical Office, the Bundesbank, the German Council of Economic Experts, as well as representatives of the state finance ministries and municipalities.