There was a time when the whole of Germany was looking at the filling levels of the gas storage facilities. The otherwise stable supply suddenly seemed to be endangered because the Russians sent less and less gas to Germany and at some point no gas at all. In June last year, the Federal Network Agency declared the "alert level" of the emergency plan because the supply situation had "deteriorated considerably". Their boss, Klaus Müller, warned up and down the country that things could get tight if the Germans didn't do their best to save gas. The federal government forced operators to store gas, after which prices skyrocketed. There were long and serious discussions about which consumers would be rationed if the market collapsed.

Hanna Decker

Editor in the economy.

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Now it turns out that the efforts of the Germans have borne fruit. The price of gas is falling and falling and has reached its lowest level in almost two years at 36 euros per megawatt hour (apart from a small dip in November). The gas storage facilities are also well filled at 67 percent. However, the relaxed location is not only due to the mild temperatures, but also to the massive savings of industry and households. This is the result of a new study by the Centre for Sustainability at the Hertie School in Berlin, which was presented to the F.A.Z. in advance and published on Thursday in the journal "Nature Energy".

Market prices an effective way to save gas

According to the report, gas consumption fell by 23 percent in the second half of the year. This is "significantly more" than he and most other experts had expected at the beginning of the study, says researcher Oliver Ruhnau, who wrote the study together with Clemens Stiewe, Jarusch Müßel and Lion Hirth. The authors use a multiple regression model that controls for factors such as weather, general economic development, seasonality, and other factors, and compare actual consumption with a hypothetical benchmark.

According to the report, in view of the higher prices, the industry had already begun to reduce its gas consumption by 2021 percent in September 4. This figure rose to 27 percent in October. Households and small businesses that reach the higher wholesale prices via energy suppliers later reduced their consumption by 2022 percent shortly after the outbreak of war in March 10. The savings rose to 28 percent by September. The winter of 2022/2023 was one of the warmest in Germany since weather records began. Co-author Hirth concludes from the results that market prices are an "effective tool" to create incentives to save gas, especially in industry. However, these would have to be supplemented in a meaningful way. "Support measures and relief packages are necessary to cushion hardships. However, these should be designed in such a way that the incentives to save gas are maintained," Hirth continued.

Network Agency remains vigilant

Meanwhile, the prices that consumers pay for gas do not yet reflect the relaxed situation on the gas markets. As the comparison portal Check24 reports, heating costs are currently higher than ever, despite the gas price brake. According to the study, a model household that heated its terraced house with gas paid an average of 2406 euros in the current heating season – 12 percent more than in the same period last year. Without the gas price brake and the adoption of the December discount, it would have been as much as 2904 euros. However, there are favorable offers for new customers who benefit from the significantly lower wholesale prices, the portal said.

And the Federal Network Agency also remains vigilant. The supply is stable, but "preparation for the winter of 2023/2024 remains a key challenge," she writes in her weekly situation report. Economical gas consumption remains important. In order to secure the gas supply for the coming winter, a storage level of 1 percent must be reached by September 75.