May has arrived, the prices are swinging. Often, unfortunately, downwards. Although the stock market rarely sings the 180-year-old hiking song classic, they courageously join in with the English "Sell in may". To paraphrase Rod Stewart: "We are selling". The "stormy waters" occur on the stock exchanges, especially in summer. Is it a self-fulfilling prophecy? You don't know.

Daniel Mohr

Editor in business.

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The appropriate statistics are provided by eToro, a financial company that benefits from the brisk trading of investors. According to the study, the annual share return of 8 percent on the 15 most important world stock exchanges is made up as follows on average over the past decades: The six months from November to April bring six times 1.2 percent, i.e. 7.2 percent. And the months from May to October six times 0.1 percent, i.e. only 0.6 percent. The unpleasant thing about this is that three months of losses creep into the nastier equity half-year, i.e. circumstances that many investors want to avoid at all costs. Specifically, these are June (minus 0.3 percent), August (minus 0.2 percent) and September (minus 1.1 percent).

If you want to avoid this, join in the chorus "We are selling", but then miss July, which is in fourth place on the monthly hit list with plus 1.0 percent. So maybe get back in for July? For investors with a love of detail, the monthly grid is too rough anyway. They want to know whether prices tend to rise on Tuesdays than on Wednesdays and whether Fridays are generally not advisable. It could also be analyzed whether it is better between 11 a.m. and 12 p.m. or at 16 p.m., when the Americans are already awake?

One of the risks and side effects of it all is that temporal patterns are not set in stone. There are also miserable Julys and excellent Junes. Even in August, price gains were spotted. And the year-end rally of the best stock month December (plus 1.8 percent) sometimes even failed when the Christ Child had no money left for shares. The biggest risk of the timing strategy, however, is that investors forget the second part of the "sell in may" message: "But remember, come back in September." It's New Year's Eve in no time at all and the best stock months are missed.

If you don't have the time or inclination to trade according to seasonal patterns, a long-term rested strategy would do well. Of course, it's lucrative to avoid the worst days of a stock year. But when and where the shoals will come, no one knows in advance. It's a game of probabilities.

Being there is more important

Berenberg Bank recently mentioned a nice statistic about the timing of the markets: Anyone who has invested 30 euros in the Dax for 100 years at the highest of the year – i.e. the worst possible timing – still achieves a return of 5.4 percent per year. Whoever caught the best time reached 7 percent and whoever invested on the first trading day of the year 6.2 percent. So it's better not to put so much effort into timing. It's better to invest at all and look for good stocks.

More and more people are using glasses from Fielmann for this purpose. Every second pair of glasses in Germany goes through their chain of stores, Marc Fielmann reported this week. Share price up 18 percent. However, television viewing is less common with glasses. Pro Sieben Sat.1 reports lower revenues and profits, kicks out the CFO and slashes the dividend. Price minus: 19 percent. Entry-level courses? Questionable. Shrinking industries rarely succeed in the stock market in the long run.

However, there is always food. And drunk. Despite the capital increase, Gerresheimer's share price is up 10 percent this week and 50 percent since the beginning of the year, with a record high in sight. Most of Gerresheimer's glass and plastic packaging is filled with medicine. Krones is even closer to a record high. And as a beverage bottler, even closer to people's daily thirst. And that's just before it finally gets warmer outside. The merry month of May can come. Investors should not be afraid of this. Who is taking part in the counter-movement: "Buy in May and have fun doing it"? Or something like that.