• On the shelves of shops and other supermarkets, the price of a bottle of orange juice has increased by about 30%, according to the Agricultural Cooperation.
  • One reason for this price increase is that juice orange production in Brazil and Florida has fallen sharply, and juice stocks are following the same trend. This is due to the spread of "dragon disease", a bacterium transmitted by an insect, which infects trees and kills them.
  • In addition to this decrease in stock, manufacturers suffer from the increase in raw material costs, and must pass it on to the selling price. An increase that is not always accepted by distributors, depending on the brand.

To the question "have you noticed an increase in the price of orange juice?", it is difficult to answer no. Firstly because, as everyone knows, the price of food as a whole has risen by about 15% in one year. But also because orange juice is a special case. Indeed, current inflation is not the only factor that has led to the rise in its prices on world markets since last summer. "In 2022, a ton of orange concentrate was worth about $2,100," says Eric Imbert, a researcher at the Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD). Currently, in 2023, it is about $2,700. »

On the shelves, the feeling is almost immediate. Last February, Quentin Mathieu, head of economics at the Agricultural Cooperation, estimated that a 50 to 60% increase in the price of orange juice was expected in stores at the beginning of the year. But today, it has revised its figures downwards. "The increase goes up to 30%," he says. But why has your bottle of Tropicana or Paquito been more expensive in recent months? 20 Minutes takes stock.

Lower inventories

If prices skyrocket, the decrease in stocks is to blame. "The stock of juice in June 2022 has never been so low since 2017," says Eric Imbert. By zooming in on Brazil, the world leader in the production of juice oranges with Florida in the United States, we see that only 126,500 tons of orange juice were stored in June 2022, against 311,000 in June 2021, according to figures provided by CIRAD. The stock for the year 2017 was only 19.5 tons less.

Be careful, these figures only concern concentrated juice, because it is the most produced and sold recipe. "Pure juice only accounts for 15 to 20% of the global orange juice market," says Quentin Mathieu.

If we look at the orange harvest, the situation is not really better. Still according to figures provided by CIRAD – Brazilian and Florida productions combined – the 2022-2023 season filled 333 million crop boxes (crates containing harvested fruit), compared to 311 million in 2021-2022. However, in comparison, 454.1 million culture cases were filled during the 2019-2020 season.

Natural disasters and disease

The causes of the fall in orange production, and consequently in the juice stock, are actually quite old. "The Florida basin has been drastically declining production over the past decade due to numerous hurricanes," says Quentin Mathieu. And then there's the "dragon disease." This bacteriosis, transmitted by a small insect called the psyllid, inoculates trees with "greening", an incurable disease. The leaves of the tree turn yellow, its fruits turn green, become bitter, and it eventually dies.

If the disease has been raging since the 2000s in the United States, its ravages were significant during the last season. And financially, orange growers cannot count on the state of Florida to support them. "American aid is concentrated on field crops or livestock," says Quentin Mathieu.

The "dragon disease" is also widespread on Brazilian territory, but Quentin Mathieu acknowledges that the country is "quite advanced in genetics", and limits the damage by using "phytosanitary means to protect plantations from diseases". A number of pesticides are sprayed and infected orange trees are also uprooted.

The rise in prices also suffered by industrialists

Another factor: that of the explosion in raw material prices due to the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, in short inflation (6% over one year, according to INSEE). "The cost of packaging and materials has increased by 50 to 80%," says Quentin Mathieu. The margin generated by manufacturers has therefore weakened, forcing them to increase the price of their bottles.

But this year (early March), negotiations with distributors have been troubled by this particular context. "Brands with significant market power – such as Tropicana, Paquito, Joker – have passed their tariff increases without problems. Other brands, on the other hand, have been threatened with being removed or put on the shelves if they do not lower their prices, "says the expert of the Agricultural Cooperation.

Paradoxically, "orange juice consumption is declining globally worldwide," explains Eric Imbert. Because it is a sweet product and is not necessarily recommended for health, it is particularly not well regarded in the United States. »

  • Economy
  • Consumption
  • Orange
  • Inflation
  • Mass distribution
  • Fruits and vegetables