If Germany shuts down its last three nuclear power plants this weekend, this step will once again divide the nation. In recent decades, the Germans have argued so passionately about no other controversial topic of energy policy as they have about nuclear power plants. Recently, the debate about the reactors has taken on a dimension that went far beyond their importance for the German power supply.
The dispute obscures the view of the problems of the future: The phase-out of coal-fired power generation, which is ideally targeted for 2030, will be a much greater challenge than the nuclear phase-out. Lignite and hard coal accounted for around a third of Germany's total electricity generation in 2022, five times as much as nuclear power. These capacities need to be replaced.
At the same time, electricity consumption will increase significantly due to heat pumps and electric cars, among other things. In order to close the looming electricity gap, it is not enough to install many more wind turbines and solar systems than before – even if that alone is a major task. After all, the greater the proportion of green electricity, the more susceptible the power supply becomes to fluctuations: If the wind is not blowing, there is no wind power, and if the sun is not shining, there is no solar power.
New gas-fired power plants are needed
There is a need for battery storage systems that store the solar power generated on their own roof during the day for the evening when citizens want to cook. Intelligent control of electricity consumption offers great opportunities: With modern grid technology, the electricity requirement for the heat pump and charging the electric car can be shifted during the course of the day. Consumption peaks can thus be smoothed out.
Above all, however, there is an urgent need to build new gas-fired power plants to step in in times of dark doldrums, when there is too little green electricity for a longer period of time due to the weather. Later, these gas turbines will have to be operated with climate-friendly hydrogen, which is produced from surplus green electricity during windy and sunny times and thus serves as a storage medium.
According to estimates, Germany will need new gas-fired power plants with a capacity of 2030 to 20 gigawatts by 25, a huge expansion program. But for this to happen, politicians must first create the necessary economic framework conditions for investors.
In the long term, nuclear power plants would be a marginal issue anyway
Wouldn't nuclear power plants be an alternative to gas turbines? Hardly. In the short term, they could make a contribution to the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war. In this respect, the shutdown comes at an inopportune time right now. But for the long-term success of the German energy transition, nuclear power plants are realistically a marginal issue. In fact, they were already an obsolete model in Germany long before the nuclear phase-out decided twelve years ago by the Union and the FDP: Since 1982, the construction of a new nuclear power plant has not begun in the Federal Republic.
For the future, however, new nuclear power plants would have to be built, and this is also rejected by the FDP and CDU. And for good reason: traditional large-scale power plants along the lines of Flamanville in France are billion-dollar graves. The completion of the nuclear plant is already eleven years late, the cost overruns compared to the original plans are exorbitant. Other large-scale projects in Finland and England are struggling with similar problems. New types of small power plants, on the other hand, have so far only been a hope, but not an economically and technically proven alternative with which reliable planning could be carried out today.
In short, it doesn't help Germany to argue endlessly with its nuclear past. The country must concentrate on setting the urgently needed course for the energy transition in the future.