Emmanuel Macron's controversial remarks on European sovereignty are only the latest evidence of an estrangement between Germany and France, which is also rooted in growing economic differences. According to Eurostat figures, in 2022 a French economic output of 2643 billion euros was offset by a German economic output of 3867 billion euros. This considerable difference can be explained not only by the larger population in Germany, but also by a higher German per capita income.
If you are looking for reasons for this development, you will find them for many years, not least on the job market. The employment rate is significantly higher in Germany; this is especially true for the baby boomer generation that is gradually retiring. The pension reform, which France's president has just forced to his detriment, has been needed for many years.
France is home to a considerable number of impressive companies, but this has not been able to prevent deindustrialization, which has so far only been talked about in Germany. The state's attempts to use money to simultaneously revitalize industry, accompany a green transformation of the economy and pacify the growing social conflicts have placed a heavy burden on public finances. The debt-to-GDP ratio, i.e. the share of government debt in economic output, is 113 percent in France compared to 69 percent in Germany. Macron's attempts to launch debt-financed European projects in the name of sovereignty are also intended to finance projects in France that the nation state can no longer handle.
A sober balancing of interests
For years, there has been concern in Berlin about France's economic prospects. For the most part, Germany's interest was more in securing the internal market in the interests of domestic companies than in participating in common ambitions. They agreed to them if they seemed necessary for political reasons – as long as the liability risks arising from European projects did not jeopardize the German credit rating. In this respect, too, german-French relations are more soberly balanced than official communication suggests.
The results of joint industrial projects, mostly led by France, are also sobering as soon as the view goes beyond Airbus as a manufacturer of civil aircraft. The military transporter is finally flying, but the project, which has since been cancelled, came with a delay and at very high cost – partly because new engines were developed in the name of European sovereignty that could easily have been bought in North America. The launcher manufacturer Arianespace is in crisis; other envisaged projects – a tank builder, a rapprochement of naval companies known as the "Airbus of the seas" – never materialized earlier. Now they want to jointly develop a fighter plane and a tank, but the intentions have yet to be followed by deeds. Paris, on the other hand, needs European cooperation to keep national industry on the market.
Berlin's lack of interest
Macron's offers of closer cooperation in many areas, starting with his Sorbonne speech, have long been echoed in Berlin – not so much out of arrogance as out of disinterest. For a long time, Germany was self-sufficient. Since 24 February 2022, the German government has once again focused more on Germany's transatlantic ties. This is true in itself, but great chancellors such as Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl knew how to maintain close relations with Washington and Paris at the same time.
Yes, since then, Europe has changed along with the world. The country's relative economic weakness undermines France's claim to leadership, the sense of exclusive relations between Germany and France may be less evident today, and the invocation of European sovereignty, like anti-American rhetoric, seems out of place at a time when dependence on America's military might is particularly obvious. Macron certainly doesn't always give the right answers, but he does ask important questions. Berlin would do well to cultivate relations with Paris again.