When it comes to the weather, the spring breakthrough is still a long time coming. The situation is similar on the stock market. Basically, it is not unfriendly, despite individual heavy showers and dark clouds in between. But now a stable high could form – also on the stock market.
Archibald Preuschat
Editor in the economy
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Ryan Detrick, chief investment strategist at Carson Group, tweeted this week that the Breadth Thrust branch has sent out a signal. To put it simply, the "Breadth Trust", developed by the American investor and financial analyst Martin Zweig, puts the sum of the number of rising and falling shares into perspective. Often, the indicator does not give the go-ahead for a bull market, i.e. rising prices.
As Detrick tweets, this has only happened 1950 times since 14. On Wall Street, the broad-based S&P 500 index was always higher a year later, on average by up to 23 percent. So is the time of the April weather on the stock market now over? After all, the S&P 500 has gained more than 8 percent since the beginning of the year, and the German stock market benchmark Dax gained over 12 percent, despite the banking turmoil following the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and the forced merger of Credit Suisse with UBS.
The omens are not that bad. On the one hand, there is the stronger euro against the dollar. This reduces energy prices, which have to be paid in US currency. This depresses inflation. There is indeed optimism on the financial markets, according to analysts at the Dutch company ING. This is after months of disbelief and hesitation among professional investors, mainly driven by fears of inflation and recession.
But one swallow doesn't make a summer. Core inflation, which excludes both energy and food prices, remains high in both the US and the eurozone. It remains to be seen whether the markets' hopes for interest rate cuts will be fulfilled this year, at least in the US.