A continuous swing, between increases and reductions, discounts and price increases. Gas and electricity prices continue to be unstable and will rise in the coming months. Markets are volatile and prices are rising: for gas up to 15% in the fourth quarter compared to now, for electricity up to 25%. This is the alarm launched by the president of Arera (the public authority that sets tariffs on the protected market), Stefano Besseghini, in a hearing at the Finance Committee of the Chamber. Consumer associations immediately came to terms. If Arera's forecasts are right, Italian families will pay 300 euros more per year on energy bills. For this reason, the associations are asking the government to restore the cut in social charges on electricity tariffs, removed in April.

"The quotations of the wholesale natural gas markets for the coming months - said Besseghini to the Chamber - have recently shown increasing volatility again, and prices for the third and fourth quarters rising with increases of about 10% in the third quarter and 25% in the fourth quarter compared to the quotations of the second quarter". For Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, "in early May there should be a slight increase in the price of gas in the bill. But to know how energy prices will go in the coming months, we have to wait. The only thing that is certain at the moment is market instability." In any case, he adds, "this short season of price declines is over."

Many unknowns weigh on the energy market: "The recovery of the Chinese economy, a definitive cut in Russian supplies, the reduction of nuclear French and hydroelectric power due to drought". Also for Simone Tagliapietra of the Bruegel think tank, "in Italy an important role will be played by hydroelectric power and the risk of a new dry summer, and therefore with low production". Consumer associations immediately went wild to come to terms with how much the increases in gas and electricity prices envisaged by Arera could cost Italian families.

For Assoutenti, "the largest expense in the bill, only for electricity, would be equal to 160 euros per year per family". The Codacons makes the same estimate for electricity, and adds 157 euros for gas, reaching 317 euros more per year per family. The National Union of Consumers is more pessimistic, calculating 459 euros more. Faced with the risk of increases, all associations are united in asking the government to restore the cut in social charges on the electricity bill, decided by the Draghi government in October 2021. For Assoutenti, these newly reintroduced system charges account for 12.7% of electricity tariffs. "Parliament must take up the cry of alarm launched by President Besseghini and review Decree Law 34 of 30 March - asks the National Consumers Union -, reintroducing the discount". Also because, he adds, "the stangata can only be partially mitigated starting from October with a fixed quota contribution that for now, however, remains unknown".

There are those who emphasize, however, the fact that at the moment it is still forecasts. "For these bill increases to occur, it is actually necessary to wait for the prices at the end of the year - writes Davide Tabarelli in the Corriere della Sera - those for immediate deliveries, those that end up in the mechanisms for calculating tariffs. On the one hand, the pessimism of the Authority is right, because the crisis is not over", continues Tabarelli, but also recalls that "other elements play downwards, starting with the stocks never seen so high in spring, almost 60% throughout Europe, thanks to a mild winter and the reaction of demand that has cut its consumption. Demand justifies optimism, given its ability to react to the very high prices of recent months". In short, a complex scenario influenced by different variables and on which it remains difficult to make forecasts.