Two days after the approval of the DEF by the government, analyses and debates continue on the impacts that the economic measures in the pipeline will have on the growth of the country and on the stability of its public accounts. Special attention was paid to PNRR and its impact on economic performance. Its full implementation, for example, will provide a boost to growth that could reach 3.4% of GDP in 2026. The calculation contained in the DEF explains well the attention that Parliament dedicates to the approval of the decree on the new governance, approved by the Senate and, amid the controversy of the opposition, now passed to the Chamber. It must be launched by 25 April.

"For the Bridge over the Strait there is a lack of financial coverage"

For the Bridge over the Strait of Messina, one of the measures most defended and supported by the executive, and in particular by the Minister of Infrastructure Matteo Salvini, "to date there are no financial coverage available under current legislation; Therefore, these will have to be identified when defining the draft budget law".

In the Def, moreover, it is emphasized that the cost of the work subject to concession, from the updates carried out, is 13.5 billion. The complementary and optimization works to the railway connections, on the Sicily side and on the Calabria side, which will have to be the subject of the program contract with RFI, are estimated to cost 1.1 billion". An overall cost, therefore, that has risen compared to initial forecasts.

Risk scenarios and forecasts: from the presence of immigrants an impact on debt

But, in addition to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, there are variables that risk instead weighing negatively on growth: the DEF takes into account some risk scenarios, such as a new increase in energy raw materials, which could result in a reduction of 0.3 points on GDP in 2023 and 0.4 next year.

On the other hand, the increase or decrease of immigrants could have a "significant" impact on the debt: a + 33% of immigrants would produce a decrease in debt by 2070 of "over 30 points". The increase or decrease of foreign workers would in fact affect the demographic variables and long-term scenarios that see the Italian population steadily decreasing in the coming decades. "Given the demographic structure of immigrants entering Italy, the effect is significant on the resident population of working age and therefore on the labor supply," reads the Def. The other variables are life expectancy (which increases and does not change forecasts "much") and "fertility" (which decreases and increases debt).

Giorgetti: "Italy is a candidate for a strategic role as a hub for energy supply"

Yesterday, at the IMF, meeting the American Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy and Environment Jose Fernandez, the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti had focused a lot on describing Italy as a future energy hub in the connection between the flows of natural gas from North Africa and those directed to northern Europe: "Italy is a candidate to play a strategic role in view of energy independence from Russia. Thanks to its location in the middle of the Mediterranean, it can act as a link with the supply of natural gas from North African countries to the north of the world".

From the meetings held by the owner of Via XX Settembre in Washington, a US interest in Italy's position on China emerged, as some sources report. At the center is the agreement on the Silk Road, signed by the Conte government and expiring. The Italian government will have to decide whether to renew or revoke it.