The number of people in need of care in Germany will rise sharply. By 2055, it is expected to increase by more than a third – from around 5 to 6.8 million. This is the result of a forecast published on Thursday by the Federal Statistical Office. As early as 2035, with constant care rates – a constant proportion of the population – there are likely to be around 5.6 million people in need of care. The reason is aging.
Britta Beeger
Editor in business and responsible for "Die Lounge".
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Christian Geinitz
Business correspondent in Berlin
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The figures illustrate the challenges facing care – in terms of care and financing. Already today, many homes and outpatient services complain about enormous staff shortages. In addition, there is a wave of bankruptcies in inpatient care due to strong cost increases and financing gaps: homes close or file for bankruptcy.
The Federal Association of private providers of social services warns in view of the new forecast of more supply gaps. "Significantly increasing numbers of people in need of care are encountering a partially collapsing supply landscape. This is simple mathematics: It is becoming increasingly difficult for people in need of care and their families to find the care they need and want," said President Bernd Meurer. "Something must be done enormously so that Germany does not rush at high speed into a nursing undersupply".
There is a billion-euro hole in long-term care insurance
In addition, there is a billion-dollar hole in long-term care insurance. Funds and social associations had therefore recently demanded higher tax subsidies in a fire letter to Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP). In 2022, the deficit amounted to 2.25 billion euros, in 2023 threatened 3 billion. In order to stabilize the situation, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) wants to increase contributions on July 1.
Actually, the cabinet should bring its reform on Wednesday on the way, but there is still a need for discussion in the coalition: The bill was not adopted. Nevertheless, it is becoming apparent that the premium increase will not be sufficient for permanently stable financing.
It is not very reassuring that the number of people in need of care could rise even more strongly – if the care rates continue to increase significantly. This development can be observed since the concept of long-term care was expanded in 2017 and also includes people with dementia. If the proportion of people in need of care in the population continues to increase, their number could climb to 2035.6 million in 3 and to 2055.7 million in 6, according to the Federal Office's forecast.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that the healthcare industry had grown by an average of 4.6 percent per year within ten years, which is 1.1 points faster than the economy as a whole. Value added in 2022 amounted to 439.6 billion euros, 12.7 percent of the total German value. Almost one in six people in employment is employed in the sector, 8.1 million people, according to the health economic accounts. Exports amounted to 2022 billion euros in 175.