Is the ban on combustion engines off the table?
Hendrik Kafsack
Economic correspondent in Brussels.
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Not exactly. On the contrary, the energy ministers of the states will adopt the EU rules for CO2 emissions unchanged next Tuesday. Because Transport Minister Volker Wissing lifts his blockade, Germany can agree. That is how the majority stands. New cars will no longer be allowed to emit CO2035 from 2.
What did Transport Minister Wissing achieve in the first place?
The agreement between Wissing and EU Climate Protection Commissioner Frans Timmermans opens a back door that should still allow the registration of new cars after 2035 that can only be driven with climate-neutral synthetic fuels (e-fuels). The Commission will fill the legendary recital 11, which the FDP had negotiated into the legal text in 2022 under a different payment method than 9a, with life – with more life than ever planned. Because the recital only provided for a proposal of new cars "outside the existing fleet limits" – i.e. not for normal cars.
What are e-fuels anyway?
Climate-neutral e-fuels are produced using green electricity from hydrogen and CO2 taken from the atmosphere. The result is a fuel that has similar properties to gasoline, diesel or kerosene. During combustion, the bound CO2 is released again. The production is very energy-intensive. According to ADAC, the energy consumption is five to six times higher than for cars powered directly by electricity. But they have an advantage. They can be produced in remote windy regions such as southern Chile and then transported by ship.
How does Brussels intend to pave the way for combustion engines powered by e-fuels?
The Commission will make a statement at the meeting of energy ministers on Tuesday. In it, she will explain her approach, including the timetable. It is clear that the new vehicle category "cars powered by climate-neutral e-fuels" is to be created on the basis of the existing EU rules for type approval. Subsequently, the CO2 requirements for cars must be adjusted. After all, they stipulate that no more CO2035 may come out of the exhaust from 2 – and that is the case with climate-neutral e-fuels.
By when should this take place?
The Commission wants to deliver immediately after the vote of the EU energy ministers on Tuesday. By the end of the year, all this should be put on track. Wissing hopes that by autumn 2024 – when the Commission's term of office ends – the end of the combustion engine.
Why is it all so complicated?
The EU Commission, but also the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers, where – this must not be forgotten – there is a clear majority for the end of combustion engines, did not want to "reopen" the text of the law itself. That would have been legally difficult, as Parliament has already finally adopted the CO2 rules for cars. In addition, there would have been a risk that the laboriously negotiated compromise and thus also the entire, much more comprehensive EU climate package would have been jeopardized.
Is there a guarantee for Wissing that the EU will deliver?
No, there isn't. The Commission has now made a clear commitment that and what it will deliver. But these are only suggestions. They have yet to be adopted. The Commission wants to work with specific legal acts that can be adopted without majorities in the European Parliament and the Member States. However, this raises legal questions. The European Court of Justice can still intervene. And if there is great resistance in Parliament and the Council of Ministers, the proposals can also fail.
What does this mean for drivers and the automotive industry?
They have to wait a little longer until they know whether they can plan with the combustion engine. Until then, there will only be planning security for the expansion of electromobility.
Are cars powered by e-fuels an alternative for the normal driver?
That's the big unknown. The production of e-fuels is extremely expensive. Experts largely agree that this will hardly change, but as the saying goes: The future is uncertain. At the moment, it looks as if combustion engines powered by e-fuels are at best something for the wealthy – unless they are much better off in terms of taxation. Finance Minister Christian Lindner has already announced a push for this. In addition, e-fuels are needed for transport fields that cannot be powered by electricity, such as ships and aircraft. The chemical industry also needs them. However, depending on the estimate, the plants planned so far only cover 10 to 20 percent of the demand for these sectors.
Which manufacturers rely on e-fuels?
Above all, Porsche, which is also involved in a pilot factory in Chile. BMW CEO Oliver Zipse has recently campaigned for e-fuels. Meanwhile, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Volvo and other manufacturers are focusing on electromobility.