The price of gold has risen again.
Yesterday (March 14), the domestic gold price reached 427 yuan per gram, while the international gold price broke through the 1900 mark and reached 1907.3 US dollars per ounce.
Analysts attribute this round of rise in gold prices to heightened risk aversion.
On Monday (March 13), international gold prices rose more than 2%, hitting a six-week high.
On March 13 local time, the most active April gold futures price in the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market rose by US$49.3 from the previous trading day to close at US$1,916.5 an ounce, an increase of 2.64%. Break through $1900/oz again.
In terms of A-shares, gold concept stocks have changed for two consecutive days this week, and several gold ETFs have risen for two consecutive days.
On March 14, gold concept stocks such as Zhongrun Resources, Shengda Resources, and Mancaron all rose sharply, and the second-new stock Sichuan Gold even went up to eight consecutive boards.
People in the industry generally believe that the Silicon Valley Bank incident triggered a rise in short-term risk aversion in the market, leading to a continuous rise in international gold prices. Looking ahead, international gold prices may continue to rise slowly.
International gold price stands above 1900
In fact, since the beginning of November last year, international gold prices have started to rebound.
At that time, the lowest price of gold fell to the 1600 mark, but after creating a new low for this round of adjustment, the price of gold started a strong rise for three consecutive months. On January 13, 2023, the international price of gold broke through 1900 US dollars Per ounce, this is the first time it has returned to above 1900 after falling below the 1900 mark on April 25 last year.
After an inertial surge in January, the international gold price rose to $1959.7 per ounce in early February.
However, the adjustment came soon, and the price of gold fell back to US$1,804.5 per ounce at the end of February, a drop of more than US$150 within the month.
In March, after a brief shock, the international gold price rose again.
On March 14, although the international gold price dropped slightly, it still traded above the important mark of 1900 US dollars per ounce.
The bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States continued to simmer, and European stock markets plummeted overnight. The Italian and Austrian markets fell by more than 4%, Germany, Spain and other markets fell by more than 3%, and France, the United Kingdom and other markets generally fell by more than 2%.
As a result, the risk aversion sentiment in the market has heated up, the international gold price has soared, and gold investors have ushered in rich harvests.
Industry insiders see high gold prices
After the continuous rise, what will happen to the future of gold prices?
"I think the price of gold is still likely to rise slowly." A senior manager of the International Department of ICBC Zhejiang Branch said in an interview with reporters that there are two main reasons for the upward price of gold:
One is the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank of the United States, which may lead to the possibility that the Federal Reserve will end its interest rate hike cycle early. In the second half of the year, the U.S. dollar index is likely to continue to decline, which will drive the gold price to continue to rebound.
The second is the recent news of the bankruptcy of many banks in the United States. Against the background of bank credit problems and the inability to realize payment, the safe-haven attribute of gold has also been highlighted.
Therefore, from the analysis of these two aspects, the whole gold market should still be optimistic.
Many domestic institutions are also optimistic about the gold sector.
Southwest Securities believes that the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank in the United States has led to an increase in risk aversion, and the unemployment rate in February has risen more than expected, reducing the market's expectations for the Fed's subsequent interest rate hike. Stay optimistic about the gold sector for a long time, and the gold price center still has room to rise; the Fed’s interest rate hike is coming to an end, and in the context of the currency cycle switch, the real yield of long-term U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar cycle are still down; energy transition, the rise of anti-globalization trends and Under the sticky inflation of the service industry, it is difficult for the long-term inflation center to fall back quickly; global central banks increase their holdings of gold, and their strategic allocation status has improved.
The Huatai Securities Research Report stated that the Silicon Valley Bank incident may become a catalyst for gold prices to regain their gains.
Reiterating that gold has entered the allocation window, gold stocks generally follow the rise of gold prices, and the rise is better than gold itself; gold prices are expected to rise in 2023, and they are optimistic about investment opportunities in the gold sector.
In addition, as early as February, CICC's research report pointed out that gold is expected to achieve a higher increase in 2023.
With the gradual decline of US inflation, it will drive the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and even start the cycle of interest rate cuts. The real interest rate is expected to continue to fall; coupled with the current anti-globalization background, the global monetary system is facing profound changes, and the demand for gold reserves is systematically changing. The price of gold has entered the right upward channel and is expected to break through the historical high of 2075 US dollars / ounce, and even reach the level of 2300~2500 US dollars / ounce.
So, is now the time for individual investors to invest in gold?
A senior investment consultant from a large state-owned bank in Hangzhou believes, "In the long run, gold is on an upward trend, but it still cannot avoid short-term adjustments and shocks. If individuals really want to invest, it is recommended to invest regularly."