China's economy started to stabilize and rebound: market sales turned from decline to increase

　　China News Service, March 15th (Reporter Li Jinlei) How is China's economy getting off to a good start?

Stabilized and rebounded.

　　On March 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic data for January and February.

The data shows that production demand has improved significantly, employment prices are generally stable, market expectations are accelerating to improve, and economic operation is showing a trend of stabilization and recovery.

　　Experts said that judging from a series of indicators of economic conditions since the beginning of this year, they have full confidence in the achievement of the economic growth target.

Data map: A shopping mall welcomes many consumers.

Photo by Han Zhangyun

Consumption turns from decline to increase

　　In 2023, expanding domestic demand will be an important task of economic work.

In accordance with the requirements of the government work report, efforts will be made to expand domestic demand.

Prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption.

　　From the perspective of consumption, the market sales have turned from a decline to an increase, and the consumption of basic life and upgrades has grown rapidly.

Data show that from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 7,706.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a decrease of 1.8% in December 2022; the two-year average growth rate was 5.1%.

　　Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, pointed out at the press conference that in general, consumption's contribution to economic growth will be significantly improved and enhanced compared with last year.

Inhibiting factors to consumption are being gradually eliminated. With the gradual recovery of employment and the growth of residents' income, consumption's contribution to the overall economy will be significantly improved.

　　Jin Li, vice president of Southern University of Science and Technology, told Zhongxin Finance and Economics that in general, as the epidemic prevention and control has entered a new stage, the consumption environment and consumption order have improved, and residents' consumption capacity and willingness to consume have increased. There is a good momentum.

Prices rose moderately

　　This year's "Government Work Report" determined the expected target of price control: the consumer price increase of about 3%.

Judging from the previous two months, the price increase was within the expected target.

　　Data show that consumer prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in the first two months.

In terms of months, the national consumer price in January rose by 2.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month; in February it rose by 1.0% year-on-year and fell 0.5% month-on-month.

　　Fu Linghui said that compared with the world's major economies, this level is in stark contrast to China's price stability and international high inflation.

In the United States and the euro zone, inflation levels are still above 6%.

Prices in China remained generally stable.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI will likely remain in the range of 1%-2% in the next few months, and it is unlikely to break through the inflation control target of around 3% in the government work report this year.

　　Fu Linghui judged that the annual grain output has stabilized at more than 1.3 trillion catties for eight consecutive years, and the inventory is relatively abundant.

At present, pork production capacity is at a reasonable level, and there is no condition for a sharp increase.

Under the effect of various policies and measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, although the price is under certain pressure, it can still achieve the expected goal of controlling the price at around 3% for the whole year.

Data map: Passengers travel at Nanjing Railway Station.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

Business expectations improve

　　From the perspective of leading indicators, in February, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 52.6%, 56.3% and 56.4% respectively, 2.5, 1.9 and 3.5 percentage points higher than the previous month, The three major indexes have been in the expansion range for two consecutive months.

　　"Last year, due to the impact of multiple external factors that exceeded expectations, the expectations of manufacturing companies have been fluctuating. In the fourth quarter of last year, they were below the critical point for three consecutive months. Judging from the situation this year, with the rapid and stable transition of epidemic prevention and control , the effect of domestic economic stabilization policies continues to appear, and business expectations improve." Fu Linghui said.

　　Fu Linghui said that the manufacturing PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises in February has risen above the critical point, and it was below the critical point for a long time last year.

All these situations show that the vitality of enterprises and the market are gradually increasing. The vitality and expectations of individual industrial and commercial households and small enterprises in the market are improving.

Confidence in achieving goals

　　The "Government Work Report" proposed that this year's economic growth target is about 5%.

Judging from the economic performance in January and February, can the annual target be achieved?

　　"The expected growth target of around 5% is in line with the reality and needs of development." Fu Linghui pointed out that in general, there are pressures and challenges to achieve the expected target of around 5% this year, but we must also see that we have the conditions and the foundation , more confident in achieving growth targets.

　　He said that the inhibitory effect of the epidemic on production demand has been largely eliminated this year, which is conducive to releasing the potential of economic growth.

In terms of expanding domestic demand, policies will continue to be strengthened.

Various departments are already planning relevant policies to expand demand this year, which will play a role in promoting the realization of the annual target.

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