The problems observed today in the US banking sector are unlikely to "spread" to Russia, said on Tuesday, March 14, press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.
According to him, Russian banks still maintain certain ties with certain segments of the international financial system.
At the same time, the country's credit institutions are mainly under illegal restrictions from the West, which makes them less susceptible to external problems, Peskov is sure.
“Therefore, there is no evil without good.
Here, to a certain extent, we are insured against the negative impact of the crisis that is now unfolding across the ocean, ”the Kremlin spokesman stated.
Recall that over the past week in the United States, three large banks went bankrupt - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank - with total assets of almost $ 331 billion. Moreover, the first two organizations were in the top 30 largest US financial companies.
The situation provoked a panic in the US stock market, resulting in a sharp collapse in the value of shares of a number of other banks in the country.
President Joe Biden has already promised to look into the situation, bring those responsible to justice and pay all the money to depositors of bankrupt organizations.
At the same time, the head of the White House assured citizens that the American banking system "is safe."
However, the opposite point of view was expressed by the former leader of the country, Donald Trump.
“Given what is happening with our economy ... Joe Biden will be remembered as the Herbert Hoover of our time (US President from 1929 to 1933. -
RT
).
We will have a Great Depression - much bigger and more powerful than the one that started in 1929.
The proof is that the banks are already starting to collapse,” Trump tweeted.
Against this background, the international rating agency Moody's on Tuesday downgraded the outlook for the US banking system from stable to negative, as reported by CNBC.
At the same time, the channel noted that the organization thus "dealed a serious blow to an already staggering sector."
Gettyimages.ru
© Viktoryia Vinnikava / EyeEm
The main reason for this situation was a record increase in the discount rate by the Federal Reserve System (FRS), which performs the functions of the US central bank.
This opinion was shared with RT by the chief analyst at Otkritie Investments, Alexei Kornilov.
According to him, the current policy of the American regulator, in fact, exposed the problems of the country's banking sector.
As the specialist recalled, the interest rate in the United States has been extremely low for a long time and remained near zero.
At the same time, in 2022, after Washington imposed sanctions against Moscow, inflation accelerated sharply in the United States.
In an attempt to curb rising prices, the Fed began to raise the rate and over the past 12 months has raised it eight times: from 0-0.25% to 4.5-4.75%, the highest level since 2007.
Traditionally, such a tightening of monetary policy is considered one of the main tools in the fight against inflation.
As a result of the increase in rates, the cost of loans for citizens and businesses is growing, economic activity is weakening, which puts pressure on prices.
At the same time, due to the actions of the Fed, the yield of US government bonds is increasing, while their value is decreasing.
Companies and the public usually buy these securities to save their money and earn a profit in the form of interest.
At the same time, in recent years, American banks have invested a significant amount of funds in US government bonds, including the money of their depositors.
“Against the backdrop of increased yields, government bonds have become much more attractive than bank deposits, which provoked an outflow of depositors' funds.
As a result, banks were forced to sell part of their assets in the form of the same government bonds, and at a lower price than the one for which these bonds were purchased.
As a result, banks recorded a loss.
Thus, raising rates to fight inflation unintentionally led to the current crisis,” explained Alexey Kornilov.
It is noteworthy that before the start of current events, assets on the balance sheets of American banks were not reflected at current, reduced prices, but at their former, higher value.
The Fed, in turn, did not pay attention to this problem and was confident in the stability of financial institutions, Valery Yemelyanov, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, told RT.
“This whole construction is a uniquely American phenomenon.
The Fed sincerely believes that there is no need to interfere in the risk policy of banks and they themselves should assess how much and what securities they buy with depositors' money.
In Russia and other countries, this is absolutely not the case.
There are strict reservation regulations, and our bank cannot buy bonds of the American or even its own government and reflect them on its balance sheet at the old price, ”Emelyanov noted.
The tip of the iceberg
According to him, the current state of affairs in the US banking sector is somewhat reminiscent of the events of 2008.
Nevertheless, the scale of today's problems is still much more modest, the analyst believes.
As the specialist explained, the mortgage bubble was at the heart of the previous crisis, and now there is no such threat.
Aleksey Kornilov adheres to a similar assessment.
“Today's events are more like the crisis of the 1980s in the United States.
At that time, the growth of rates also served as one of the reasons for the manifestation of imbalances in the financial sector.
The degree of systemic nature of the new crisis has yet to be established, but it is likely that other banks may face problems similar to Silicon Valley Bank, ”the expert did not rule out.
As Ivan Manaenko, director of the analytical department of Veles Capital IC, told RT, in the event of a further deterioration in the situation, the Fed could restart the printing press and flood the banking system with money.
At the same time, the issue of unsecured dollars risks turning into a new inflationary shock for the United States, which will negatively affect Biden's election campaign.
“Therefore, the United States is now trying by all means to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis and is trying to help individuals protect their savings.
However, the current high rates make life very difficult for the economy and companies that are used to living in debt.
While the Fed is trying to smooth the process, bring down the panic in the market, but there is a possibility that this is just the tip of the iceberg, and then new problems in the financial sector may begin,” Manaenko suggested.
Gettyimages.ru
© Lance Nelson
Nevertheless, even in the event of a new financial crisis in the United States, its impact on Russia will no longer be as serious as in 2008.
Confidence in this was expressed by the manager for the analysis of banking and financial markets of Promsvyazbank Dmitry Gritskevich.
As the specialist explained, now Moscow has an order of magnitude fewer ties with the US banking system than it did 15 years ago.
“In 2008-2009, the world crisis manifested itself in Russia through a decrease in prices for exported goods, a fall in securities quotes and a depreciation of the ruble, as investors, primarily foreign ones, began to withdraw money into dollars.
At the moment, the influence of foreign players on the Russian stock and currency markets is practically absent, which protects our financial system from negative external influences, ”said the interlocutor of RT.
According to experts, if the crisis in the United States again acquires a global character, the consumption of commodities in the world may decrease, which will negatively affect Russian exports.
However, according to Ivan Manaenko, the situation in trade is not so clear now, since, for example, India and China still have a large potential for demand for resources.
“As for our banking system, the endless stream of sanctions shocks has been able to harden it in recent years.
Our Central Bank has set more stringent requirements for credit institutions in terms of reserves and borrowers, and also did not give relief to financial companies.
That is, only those who could really return them received the money.
Moreover, we have been cautious about financing startups, while in the US some startups are trading on the stock exchange, not yet having real profits.
In our country, banks do not believe in promises, but only in concrete results, ”concluded Manaenko.