At Swiss Post, the Verdi trade union is already preparing an indefinite industrial action. In the public sector, it has just paralyzed air traffic for a day with warning strikes. And before the second round of negotiations for 2.5 million federal and local employees starting this Wednesday, it is preparing for tightening if employers do not bring a "really good offer". "The next strikes have a different dimension," threatens Verdi boss Frank Werneke. The wage demands in the two conflicts differ only in their structure – their scope amounts to 15 percent each.

Dietrich Creutzburg

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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But that's not all: The railway union EVG, once regarded as moderate, has recently attracted attention with shrill tones. After deciding on its demand to Deutsche Bahn and another 50 rail operators at the end of January, it immediately fuelled speculation about a strike wave in March – even before negotiations began. However, the speculation is not implausible in view of the amount of their demand: 650 euros more per month for all, except for the upper tariff groups beyond 5416 euros monthly wage – for them there should be "only" 12 percent more. The bottom line is that the claim amounts to about 18 percent.

There can no longer be any talk of wage restraint in Germany, and the climate of collective bargaining policy is becoming noticeably more heated. Last year, the major industrial unions, IG Metall and IG BCE, conducted their collective bargaining rounds under the impression of recession and job concerns and therefore felt obliged to a certain moderation. But in the current collective bargaining rounds, nothing of this can be seen. Is it just because public sector employees traditionally have little to worry about job security?

Fear of a "wage-price spiral"

In any case, the new pace is not only a problem because it burdens consumers with more strikes. It also revives the almost forgotten fear of a "wage-price spiral" – of a mutual escalation of price and wage increases. The European Central Bank had already sent out some warning signs recently. Now the Bundesbank states it very clearly: "Noticeable second-round effects on prices are foreseeable," it writes in its new Monthly Report. For example, wage policy is "helping to ensure that the inflation rate will remain well above the medium-term target of 2 percent for the euro area over a longer period of time."

This contradicts the assessments that Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and the social partners had jointly represented a few months ago in the "Concerted Action" convened by Scholz: There is no "wage-price spiral" in Germany. Drivers of inflation are energy shortages and supply chain disruptions, but not wages. In its analysis, however, the Bundesbank also points out that other forces are at work in addition to the trade unions: the new labour shortage – and the government coalition with its decision to raise the statutory minimum wage to 12 euros. This was 25 percent more than in the previous year.

A more detailed analysis of the wage rounds is provided by the new collective bargaining report of the German Economic Institute (IW) for 2022, which is available to the F.A.Z. in advance. All in all, the employer-related institute judges it as follows: Based on the deals achieved by the end of 2022 and "measured against the annual inflation rate of 7.9 percent, the collectively agreed wage dynamics were moderate overall". According to researchers Hagen Lesch and Lennart Eckle, this "avoided conflicts with the European Central Bank, which would end in a stabilization recession." With regard to the new collective bargaining rounds, however, they judge differently: "If the unions prevail with their high demands, which go far beyond the inflation rate, a wage-price spiral threatens in 2023."